https://hbr.org/1984/09/are-economic-forecasters-worth-listening-to
We argue that economic forecasts deserve to be taken seriously, not necessarily because they promise to be accurate but because they are so much more useful than having no forecasts at all. We do not say that managers should listen to all forecasts or to all forecasters; that is the sure road to total confusion. Rather, we say that forecasts properly used and understood will lead to better business decisions than forecasts ignored or naively used.
"We argue that economic forecasts deserve to be taken seriously, not necessarily because they promise to be accurate but because they are so much more useful than having no forecasts at all."
ReplyDeleteOk. So let all economic forecasts include a label. Like when prosecutors bring charges, they are often at pains to remind the public that those charged are presumed innocent till proven guilty. Or car manufactures will tell consumers what the mileage is on a car based pn certain assumptions and add that in practice the users' mileage may vary.
Economic forecasts should say something like, "The economy is too complicated to be predictable. Reality will not necessarily reflect the underlying assumptions of this report nor align with its conclusions. Different economic models and analyses based on the same data may vary substantially ."
Economic forecasts are like weather forecasts - if you predict that it will rain tomorrow, eventually you'll be right. Sure, you might have done it for 30 days in a row but when it rains you'll say "Ha! Told you!"
ReplyDeleteRight -
ReplyDeleteSo Prof Roubini predicts there will be a recession, and about every 10-12 years or so, he is correct, and media pay attention to him.
So you are claiming there is no difference between Democratic economists and Republicans - it is all a random outcome?
ReplyDeleteAre you equally critical of Republican economics?
ReplyDeleteHalevi that Republicans would endorse conservative economics! Remember that being conservative means a smaller government which concentrates on providing essential services while leaving individuals and communities to organize services for their other needs. The GOP, especially under Bush and Trump, never came close to that.
ReplyDeleteExactly. Here's something - the business cycle of growth - boom - decline-recession lasts 9-11 years. Always has except in periods of exceptional events like world wars. Yet everytime we're in a boom we're told this time we have the fundamentals right and it'll last forever. Every time we're in a recession we're told it'll never get back to the good ol' days again. Every time they're wrong.
ReplyDeleteThe trick to winning an election is timing. You want to run during the boom years (Clinton 1996) and avoid re-election during the slowdown (Bush 1992).
Bad economics is bad economics. There is no dichotomy like one side using economics to further tjeir agenda is good, the other side is bad. Economics is a discipline. It should not be politicized.
ReplyDeleteYosef hatzaddik knew of these economic cycles, that's why he advised Pharaoh to store grain in times of plenty.
ReplyDelete