I followed your post and comments on hashgacha pratis the other day (http://daattorah.blogspot.com/2009/09/g-d-reason-for-abuse-and-rape.html). This is a subject that I've been coming back to from various perspectives for nearly thirty years, so your post got me thinking once again. This time around, I'm having trouble with those rishonim and acharonim who are presented as believing in a virtually random, unguided fate for most people. For instance, you quote R' Dessler:
...all non-Jews and most Jews—except for some exception—they are without a doubt under the control of natural laws… This is no different than the animals whose Providence is not for the individual but only for the species—because it as a species they fulfill G-d’s will.
How would this fit the gemara in Brachos
כשם שמברכים על הטוב כך מברכים על הרעה?
Isn't the bracha an acknowledgement that all the good and bad things that happen to us are orchestrated directly by G-d. One look in Shulchan Aruch will tell us that this halacha relates equally to all Jews.
And how about
בארבעה פרקים העולם נידון בפסח על התבואה בעצרת על פירות האילן בר"ה כל באי
עולם עוברין לפניו כבני מרון?
According to the Ramban in Shar Hagemul this wasn't necessary a judgment over life and death, but over the general quality of life in the coming year – and it covered all strata of human life, not just tzadikim. I would imagine it would require a great deal of hashgacha to engineer precisely the good and bad events for each individual...
It's one thing to see a machlokus rishonim or acharonim, but who can argue with an explicit chazal? Perhaps there are other forces at play in the world besides hashgacha...maybe something like the “bracha” discussed by the in Ahavas Chesed.
With best regards,