Saturday, September 24, 2022

Party Switcher Data Doesn’t Lie, but It’s Easy to Misinterpret: Alarm & Optimism in Key States

So, has there been a notable rightward shift post-2020?

Based solely on party switching, no, I don’t think the data point to a dramatic shift, and I think the AP’s claim that “More than 1 million voters switch to GOP in warning for Dems” is flawed.

Based on the data, the Democratic Party continues to lead total voter registration by a wide margin, but the system — the Senate and the Electoral College — favors Republicans.

Looking within states, the trends vary depending on the local political and cultural context. There is cause for alarm in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida. But there’s also hope: states like Maine, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Colorado may trend bluer over time if current trends continue.

So, should Democrats be worried about the fall? Of course, but not because of a relatively small number of party switchers.

1 comment :

  1. Don't forget - these are the same folks who predicted a big Hillary win in 2016.


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