https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/04/trump-turkey-erdogan-israel/682492/
If Trump wants to prevent another regional conflict, calling Turkey’s president a “friend” won’t cut it.
The Turkish Republic is on the brink. As Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, its would-be sultan, dismantles the country’s secular democracy, President Donald Trump has seemingly taken little notice. Soon, though, Trump will have no choice but to pay attention. While Erdoğan consolidates power at home and prepares to project it abroad, he has set the stage for a clash with Israel. Indeed, Turkey has quickly emerged as perhaps the greatest danger to the Jewish state in the Middle East, escalating the threat of a conflict he won’t be able to avoid.
This is a potentially scary situation.
ReplyDeleteTurkey, despite devolving into an Islamist dictatorship with delusions of Ottoman grandeur, and despite its reliance on Russian weapons and its ongoing destruction of Syria's Kurds, remains a paid-up member of NATO.
Now, if Turkey attacks Israel in Syria, there's no problem. The alliance is defensive. If Italy decides to attack someone, NATO has no obligation to help.
But here's the thing: Israel likes to rely on striking first before the enemy is ready. Israel may become aware of an impending Turkish attack or an attack by terrorists supported by Turkey in which case a 1st strike on Turkish positions in Syria makes strategic sense. But then it's an attack on a NATO member and multiple states in NATO would love nothing more than to attack Israel with the excuse "They attacked us first!"