https://etzion.org.il/en/philosophy/issues-jewish-thought/issues-mussar-and-faith/holocaust
C. Did the Jewish Spiritual Leadership Anticipate the Holocaust and Prepare for It?
This controversial question is surrounded by differing opinions as well as by some misconceptions. It is an important question and one worthy of the effort to arrive at an orderly response.
Could the Holocaust have been foreseen? Seemingly, the answer should be 'yes.' Anyone who paid attention to what Hitler yimach shemo was saying, in his speeches and in his writings, would have had ample evidence of his explicit intentions. Even if some of his demagoguery preceded his election and could have been interpreted as nothing more than populist rabble-rousing, it was clear from the moment that he took the reins of government in Germany and began to promote his campaign of antisemitic legislation and action that he was carrying out his previously declared intentions. Indeed, with his rise to power there began a massive emigration of Jews from Germany to the US and to Eretz Yisrael. This movement slowed around the years 1935-6, but picked up again in 1937-8, with the intensification of antisemitic attacks. Does the fact that so many German Jews left the country prove that anyone could have known? In this regard, many people point to Ze'ev Jabotinsky and his speeches throughout Europe, warning again and again of the imminent catastrophe facing the Jews of that continent.
Despite all this, I am inclined to accept the argument of Prof. Yaakov Katz that this clarity comes with hindsight, and that an authentic re-creation of the processes and events in their historical context leads us to the conclusion that it would have been difficult to imagine the Holocaust as a serious possibility. We know that the weight given to declarations by leaders, and their proper interpretation, is largely context-dependent. Who could honestly have imagined that Hitler's venomous statements, delivered to gatherings of various associations and groups, were any more than expressions of hatred and belligerence, that there was the remotest chance that anyone in the enlightened world would allow them to be fulfilled, that there would be an operative plan for their realization, and that he would attain power? All of these barriers, along with many others, prevented an accurate reading of the early signs.
