The data are in. There are 2.1 million Charedi Jews in the world today, comprising one in seven of the global Jewish population. By 2040 they are projected to reach about four million and comprise at least one in five. That’s not speculation; it’s as certain as any demographic projection ever gets.
The figures in the UK are even more striking. 80,000 Charedi Jews live here, constituting one in four of the whole. In fact, Charedi Jews comprise a larger fraction of the total Jewish population here than in any other country in the world, bar Belgium. And by 2040, the proportion here will be somewhere between one in every two or three.
we may reach an equilibrium. But being majority chareidi in UK does not really affect anyone negatively. years ago, we thought reform was big problem, and centrist orthodoxy was miles apart from reform. So the communities do not really mingle much. The benefits are more options in kosher food, and other religious resources. The Chareidim are not too interested in Anglo Jewish institutions such as the chief rabbinate, the board of deputies, etc and are also not too active in Zionist affairs like KKL.
ReplyDeleteFor two generations now we have been told to prepare for the UO to dominate the Jewish community and for the Reformatives to disappear. Two generations later the UO are still 10% of the population and the Reformatives, with their even-expanding definition of Who-Is-a-Jew are still the same majority.
ReplyDeleteThe left will start counting Halachic Goyim who self-identify as Jewish (not much differently than how nowadays some men identify as female and some women identify as male), in the Reform and Conservative movements, where they have invalid conversions as well as use patrilineal descent to count gentile children born to a Jewish father and gentile mother as "Jewish".
ReplyDeleteTwo generations ago no one dared make such a prediction.
ReplyDeleteToday the proof is in the pudding. The numbers don't lie. The Hareidi population has doubled and tripled in a very short time frame and shows no signs of not repeating itself.
Torah thought daf hayomi Kethuboth 2a
ReplyDelete“R. Joseph said: Rab Judah said [that] Samuel said: Why did they [the Rabbis] Say. A MAIDEN IS MARRIED ON THE FOURTH DAY? Because we have learned [infra 57a]: If the time [appointed for the marriage] arrived and they [the maiden or the widow] were not married [the marriage did not take place through the man's fault], they [the maiden or the widow] eat of his [food] [the man has to maintain them and they eat [if the man (the bridegroom) is a priest] of terumah [the priest's share of the crop. v. Glos]. You might think that if the time arrived on the first day in the week he would have to supply her with food, therefore have we learned, A MAIDEN IS MARRIED ON THE FOURTH DAY [ And thus to teach that it is not his fault that he does not marry her on the first day in the week, because the Rabbis ordained that he has to wait with the marriage till the fourth day (in the case of a maiden), or th e fifth day (in the case of a widow)]. Said R. Joseph: Lord of Abraham [An exclamation, like ‘O, God!’ (v. Rashi ad loc]! He [Samuel] attaches a Mishnah which was taught, to a Mishnah which was not taught! Which was taught and which was not taught? This was taught and this was taught! But [put it this way]: he attaches a Mishnah, the reason of which was explained [Our Mishnah: So THAT . . . HE COULD GO EARLY TO THE COURT OF JUSTICE], to a Mishnah, the reason of which was not explained [infra 57a]. But if it was said [The saying of Samuel], it was said thus; Rab Judah said [that] Samuel said: Why did they say, A MAIDEN IS MARRIED ON THE FOURTH DAY? Because IF HE HAD A Claim AS TO THE VIRGINITY HE COULD GO EARLY [NEXT MORNING] TO THE COURT OF JUSTICE well, let her be married on the first day in the week, so that if he had a claim as to virginity he could go early [on the morning of the second day of the week] to the court of justice! [The answer is:] The Sages watched over the interests [ lit., ordinance, improvement] of the daughters of Israel so that [the bridegroom] should prepare for the [wedding.] feast three days, [namely] on the first day in the week, the second day in the week, and the third day in the week, and on the fourth day he marries her. And now that we have learned שקדו, [They (the Sages) watched, etc. the principle just stated.] that [Mishnah] which we have learned: If the time arrived and they were not married, they eat of his [food] and they eat of terumah, [is to be understood as implying that if] the time arrived on the first day in the week, since he cannot marry [her, on the first day of the week, on account of the ordinance], he does not give her food [on the three days, from the first day of the week to the fourth day]”
Beautiful. My theory. Th maiden presents herself as a virgin. The marriage ceremony had two stages a year apart. The first stage, kiddushin, no sex allowed the whole year. The 2nd stage, nesuin. The Sages wanted the man to make a lavish wedding feast that requires 3 days preparation and the wedding on the 4rth day. Why? To make sure the man goes through with the wedding since he invest so much in the wedding feast. . Oh no! He marries her on the 4rth day and sees she is not a virgin. He wants the court the next morning to annul the wedding. Strict rules on annulling a wedding. Be a man. Don’t dare try to annul a wedding with a weak case. All hell to pay if you do. Yesterday we started Kethuboth. I love this Gamara.
What are you talking about? Norman Lamm famously gave a speech about it. It was the central point of Aish Hatorah's Discovery seminar. They've been harping on this for two generations and the demographics haven't changed.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at Pew and other big surveys, they already have.
ReplyDeleteLook at Tiffany Hadish as a prime example.
Lamm was bemoaning it, not celebrating it.
ReplyDelete