Caution: The massive disruptions caused by the Coronavirus outbreak may prompt me to revise the forecast, especially if there is a crack in Trump support.
The Primary Model gives President Trump a 91% chance of winning a possible match-up with Democrat Joe Biden in November, based on primary performance in New Hampshire and South Carolina, plus the first-term electoral benefit. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176.
Winning the early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November. On the Democratic side, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders split the primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina while Trump handily won the Republican Primary in New Hampshire (the GOP primary in South Carolina was cancelled this year).
What favors Trump in 2020 as well is the cycle of presidential elections operating for nearly 200 years, as illustrated by the snapshot since 1960. After one term in the White House the incumbent party is favored to win re-election unlike the situation when it has held office for two or more terms.
Uh, no. It's wishful thinking this model.
ReplyDeleteSo models are nice but they're not reality. Jimmy Carter, for example, was a one-term president which goes against this model. But the reason he was proves why the model is faulty.
ReplyDelete1) The economy was bad
2) America, still feeling humiliated over Viet-nam, was now getting humiliated by Iran
3) Reagan was an exceptional candidate with exceptional charisma.
So what about Trump?
1) Biden has no charisma. His best chance is to play the friendly grandfather figure, the kind that anyone can relate to. If he veers into "I'm the ant-Trump!" he will lose just like Hillary did. The middle voters are looking for a reason to vote for him, not against Trump.
2) Where will the economy be in October? Yes, things are not ideal now but if the US loses control of the virus in the next month, that could be a good thing for Trump. By September the carnage will be over, herd immunity will be established and everything will reopen with a vengeance. A rising economy favours Trump and, what's more, he can (and will) take credit for saving the US.
3) America is feeling threatened by China. The guy who threatens them back the most taps into that patriotic feeling.