https://www.thefp.com/p/trump-gives-iran-a-lifeline-and-calls
President Donald Trump gave himself a birthday present on Sunday and declared that peace has been achieved after his second Iran war. “This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region. Many presidents have tried to make Peace with Iran, and all have failed before me,” he posted on Truth Social Sunday evening. “With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!”
Don’t break out the ticker tape just yet. This is not a treaty, not a deal, and not a peace agreement. It’s a memorandum of understanding to negotiate the terms of a broader peace over the next 60 days. Put another way, it is yet another ceasefire. In this respect, the agreement does not achieve any of the aims that Trump laid out on February 28 when he launched the second Iran war with Israel.
The only tangible benefit of this memorandum of understanding for the U.S. and the global economy is that Iran will agree to open the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days. Trump believed he had achieved that more than two months ago in April. That turned out to be a ceasefire in name only. In other words, Trump is celebrating an agreement that temporarily solves a problem his war helped create.
Because Iran has not agreed to anything with regard to its nuclear material, ballistic missiles, or support for terrorist proxies throughout the Middle East. As for Trump’s statements early on in the war encouraging the Iranian people to seize their institutions and rise up against their oppressors, that objective has been placed inside a memory hole.
The details of sanctions relief, cash payments, and the unfreezing of assets are still unknown. But a senior U.S. official on Friday told reporters that Iran will see no sanctions relief or unfrozen assets, or receive any cash until it delivers on its other obligations. It’s possible that the U.S. won’t pay Iran’s regime, but America’s allies will. Over the weekend, the United Arab Emirates denied an earlier report that it had already unfrozen some $20 billion in Iranian assets. One U.S. military official working closely on the negotiations, however, said that Iran would see some economic gains before the substantive negotiations began, but the details were still being haggled over. Iran’s state-directed Mehrs News Agency reported Sunday that the U.S. has agreed to unfreeze $12 billion in Iranian assets this week before negotiations begin, with another $12 million to be released during the 60 days of talks.