Tuesday, March 10, 2026
The Iran war's economic blowback is getting real
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/09/iran-war-oil-economy-blowback-prices-us
In the first week of the American and Israeli attack on Iran, the economic ripples were looking pretty minimal. But as Week 2 begins, the risks to the global economy are growing much more serious.
You can't decapitate the leadership of a country of 90 million people, with expansive military and intelligence capabilities, in the heart of some of the world's most economically important supply chains, without a huge cost.
Solid GDP growth is no consolation for higher day-to-day prices for American consumers, which doomed Joe Biden's popularity. If the recent energy price surge is sustained, that will be Trump's burden as well.
There are two winners in Iran. Neither one is America.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/03/09/us-iran-russia-china-cost/
Oil disruption benefits Russia, as does less U.S. aid for Ukraine. And Iran distracts from China.
Trump is right that Iran has an evil regime and a 47-year record of hostility toward the United States. But it was hard to argue, even before the current bombing, that the Islamic Republic constituted a major threat to the U.S. (as opposed to Israel). Iran’s nuclear program may not have been “totally obliterated” by American air strikes in June, as Trump claimed, but it was definitely set back. There was no “imminent” threat from Iran to justify the war Trump launched on Feb. 28 out of the blue — and the cost of waging it (financed with deficit spending at a time when the national debt is already close to $39 trillion) is likely to hamper U.S. efforts to compete with much more significant adversaries, notably Iran’s allies Russia and China.
Russia is already benefitting from the Iran war. The rise in oil prices (over $100 a barrel on Sunday from $73 a barrel on the eve of war) and Trump’s decision to relax sanctions on India for buying Russian oil will help bankroll the Russian war machine. The U.S. is also rapidly burning through limited stockpiles of missiles, especially air-defense interceptors, that are badly needed in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said more Patriot missiles were expended in just three days of fighting with Iran than have been used by Ukraine since 2022. Imagine how much Ukrainian energy infrastructure — and how many Ukrainian civilians — might have survived the winter if Trump had sent more Patriots to Ukraine rather than to what one journalist dubbed a “war of whim” with Iran.
It’s too soon to tell who will win the war between the United States and Iran. But, at this point, my money would be on Russia and China.
Trump tells The Post there’s no reason to panic over Iran war oil-price surge: ‘I have a plan for everything’
President Trump told The Post on Monday that he has “a plan” to tackle surging oil prices caused by the war with Iran and that people would be “very happy” — sending oil prices tumbling nearly 30% from the day’s highs.
“I have a plan for everything, okay?” Trump said in a brief phone interview Monday on the 10th day of the joint US-Israeli war with Iran. “I have a plan for everything. You’ll be very happy.”
Trump did not provide details, but he has a variety of options, including releasing oil from strategic reserves.
Iran’s Leadership Signals It Is Still in Control and Able to Fight
After 10 days of punishing airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel, Iran’s leadership is battered but showing signs it is still in control and able to fight.
Senior Iranian political figures, while hunted from the air and limiting their appearances in public, are regularly posting messages that reflect recent developments and project unity and defiance. Iran’s military continues to hit high-value targets across a wide front encompassing Arab Gulf countries, Israel and beyond, though it is firing fewer missiles than in the first days of the war.
One reason Iran’s leaders have been able to withstand the overwhelming military pressure is because they had been planning for a new war since they suffered heavy losses during the 12-day war with Israel and the U.S. in June.
The joint U.S.-Israeli war strategy is based on a core assumption: that by decapitating Iran’s political and military leadership, and destroying the physical infrastructure that surrounds them, the regime will be forced into collapse or at least surrender. U.S. officials have pointed to the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other Iranian leaders as a measure of the war’s success.
But Iran’s state apparatus was built to outlive individual leaders, thanks to layered and overlapping centers of political and military power. The clearest sign of confidence in the regime’s survival was the appointment of the late Khamenei’s hard-line son—Mojtaba Khamenei—as the Islamic Republic’s new supreme leader.
The grim choice facing the Trump administration: Economic or naval collapse?
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/09/business/oil-iran-strait-navy-economy
The Trump administration is currently trapped between the specter of a global economic recession and a naval catastrophe.
As the conflict with Iran intensifies, the world’s energy arteries are constricting to a point of “nonlinearity,” where every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed doesn’t just double the economic pain — it multiplies it exponentially.
The only immediate solution to this spiraling crisis, according to oil executives, market analysts and diplomats, is a US Navy escort operation – something Trump promised last week would be available to protect shipping assets in short order.
For Trump, the crisis is not merely a matter of geopolitics, but of domestic political survival. With midterm elections approaching in November, the surge in petrol prices represents a “politically damaging” threat that no amount of diplomatic rhetoric can mask.
Trump aides said urging him to articulate war exit plan; White House denies report
Some of US President Donald Trump’s advisers are privately urging him to publicly articulate an exit plan from the Iran war, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
The aides want him to make the case that the military has largely achieved its objectives for the war, WSJ says.
The Journal report is forcefully denied by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
WSJ says some of Trump’s aides have warned him that a drawn-out war will eat into his support, even if Republicans largely support the strikes against Iran for now.
The concerned advisers have fielded calls from Republicans who have expressed concern about what the war will mean for the upcoming midterm elections, the Journal says.
Accordingly, the aides determined that they needed a more aggressive public messaging plan to sell the war amid rising gas prices, WSJ says.