https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/423793
US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran’s leadership remains largely intact and is not at risk of collapse following nearly two weeks of sustained US and Israeli bombardment, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing three sources familiar with the findings.
One of the sources said a “multitude" of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger" of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public." The sources spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss classified intelligence assessments.
The most recent report was completed within the last few days, the source said.
The article says, "The sources emphasized that the situation remains fluid and that developments inside Iran could still change."
ReplyDeleteSo, yeah, the leadership remains in place, until it is no longer in place. Which is coming up mighty soon.
The new Supreme Leader was only picked to give the appearance of unity. In fact, evidence indicates he is not in fact leading the country.
The Iranian economy is in shambles. They're not exporting oil. Their military industry is destroyed. The leaders that haven't been killed have a bounty on their head and are being hunted down. Ain't much left to do there but give up!
DeleteJust remember that one week before Assad ran away, everyone was marvelling at how stable his reign way.
DeleteGuest Poem
ReplyDeleteBoom! Boom! Boom!
Iran wanted to make a cloud like a mushroom!
Boom! Boom! Boom!
Nothing left now not even an heirloom.
Media carries on and on and on.
How this mess is all on The Don.
They go on and on and on.
Missing the big story: Iran is GONE!
Exactly WHAT leadership are they exerting...?
ReplyDeleteOver the navy?
No navy.
Over the air force?
No air force.
Over foreign proxies?
Proxies being destroyed and supply line from Iran is no more.
Over ballistic missiles?
Launchers are history.
Over drones?
Who cares? Drones get shot down before reaching targets.
Over the Strait of Hormuz?
If they dare mine it then their island from where they export 90% of their oil and which is the size of Central Park will be bombed till it is suitable for jogging, dog walking, musical events, etc. but not much as far as oil production.
Over their military industry?
Military industry is finished.
Over their air defenses?
I don't think so.
Over their military communications network?
Knocked out.
Over sleeper cells in Europe and America?
Yeah. Maybe that. So I guess the leadership in Iran is in control over something.
You're missing one important factor.
DeleteYes, Iran's military is in ruins. All they have left is missiles to fire at Israel and anyone else in the region. They will shortly lose control of Hormuz. They're finished.
Except they still have enough army and police to keep the government in power and the minute the war ends and the US and Israel pull back, China and Russia will start shipping replacements for everything they've lost. Short of the US Navy setting up shop in the Gulf and sinking every boat from Russia or China and shooting down any transport planes from those countries, if the Iranian government can hang on then they will be replenished in a couple of years and ready for another round. That's the danger of leaving them in control
I'm not suggesting anyone be left in control who isn't reporting the U.S.
DeletePresident Trump will control oil production. He'll make sure the money from oil sales is not used on military rebuilding.
Like Germany and Japan. Unconditional surrender.
Trump can trigger a MASSIVE uprising and civil war by simply having people in Iran -- Iranians -- help him target from the air all supporters of the regime. Chop chop! It's all over.
DeleteArticles online report that Iranian security forces are setting up checkpoints and increasing repression.
DeleteSigns of desperation!
They want to find out who is tipping off the foreign militaries about targets. So they arrest and interrogate.
True signs of a regime that is crumbling is to engage in such tactics.
Imagine what will be when the U.S. drops satellite Intermet devices into the hands of the political opposition.
As it is now the security forces set under bridges to protect themselves.
Soon they will be outed and destroyed.
It's over for the regime.
As I've said before, this is not like brewing a coffee when you can predict how long to boil, how much coffee to add. Sugar, milk and then you get the desired outcome.
ReplyDeleteThese situational evaluations change from day to day.
The only reason the intelligence sources can claim the leadership retains control over the PUBLIC is because the public doesn't know yet what we know. And when the public finds out, which will be soon enough, how complete and devastating the damage is they will rise up and finish the job.
ReplyDeleteWow! Typical Trumpian fantasy
DeleteCould be. But if it comes to pass, it will be reality.
Deletethat is true for all fantasy wishful thinking and conspiracy theories
DeleteLatest reports are that regime has in fact collapsed. There is no leadership at the top echelons. Any resistance as evidenced by rockets and droned is just pockets of the resisting forces acting independently and without coordination.
DeleteSource?
Deletehttps://www.wionews.com/photos/-mojtaba-khamenei-lost-one-leg-iran-s-new-leader-secretly-flown-to-russia-for-surgery-says-report-1773630442416/1773630442417
Delete"The 'Fog of War' surrounding Iran's newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is finally lifting, and the reality exposes a deeply vulnerable regime."
DeleteNone of the popular media is reporting your claim and Trump is not claiming it either
DeleteThe article concludes, and certainly there is room for disagreement, that:
Delete"With Mojtaba Khamenei physically removed from the daily command structure, intelligence analysts warn that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is now operating autonomously. The war machine has essentially been put on autopilot. This makes the conflict far more dangerous, as regional IRGC commanders are now launching ballistic missiles and conducting strikes on Gulf nations without the strategic oversight of a centralized, functioning head of state."
The massive effort to set up checkpoints to ferret out those assisting the U.S. and the State of Israel to pinpoint security forces, a leader that is in hiding in ANOTHER country etc. Are these signs of a resilient, stable regime?
No. They are textbook indicators of a crumbling defense that has nothing better to do than lash out at their own citizens on the hunch that they'll find collaborators that way all the while with their Supreme Leader essentially a prisoner on foreign soil.
It's no less true than the Steele dossier.
DeleteAnother Guest Poem
ReplyDeletePresident Trump has conquered the enemy,
At least that is my fantasy.
Two more weeks till the total collapse,
Even sooner -- perhaps.
It doesn't matter where the Supreme Leader is.
ReplyDeleteThe reality staring at the media is that at the Iranian regime's lowest point ever, when a leader who can rally the country and lead them to victory is called for, they hire someone who has yet to appear in a single video.
I mean, maybe I'm just fantasizing. This might all be some confused hazy pictures and words floating around in my consciousness like the detritus from sunken warships in the Strait of Hornuz, but if THIS is where we are after about two weeks of war, and if the war is now finally getting under way and intensifying, I then ask myself where will it be in two more weeks; and in my fog of blog mindset I logically (or illogically) conclude A LOT FARTHER ALONG.
Wow! a real fantasy
DeleteThis article is fascinating. It demonstrates that the Iranian government has a significant minority that supports negotiating with President Trump.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/world/middleeast/iran-mojtaba-khamenei-election-supreme-leader.html