https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/16/politics/trump-iran-war-israel-strikes-strait-of-hormuz-analysis
A week ago, President Donald Trump told Britain not to bother sending ships to the Middle East because he’d already won the Iran war.
Now, he’s calling on America’s “special relationship” ally; fellow NATO states; and even China to dispatch vessels to open the Strait of Hormuz. He implied that if help didn’t arrive, Europe’s US defense umbrella and his planned summit this month with Chinese leader Xi Jinping could be at risk.
Trump’s salvo, in an interview with the Financial Times, was a fresh sign that despite his multiple Iran victory laps, the war is far from over.
The war is over on one level. Iran's ability to make and despatch rockets and drones has been curtailed. Iran's ability to exert influence through proxies it supplies has come to an end.
ReplyDeleteBut Iran still has enough drones and small boats and mines etc. with which to harass ships going the Strait of Hormuz.
So now we've entered the long drawn out phase of the war where the conflict may percolate for years to come.
It's time that countries whose economies depend on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz become part of this effort.
It's so hard to know what Trump's plans are. He is a master of deception. He used Tucker Carlson to fool the ayatollahs. He used the press to fool DT about his relationship with Bibi. Nothing he says is straight up because he has a master plan and doesn't want to give it away..
DeleteSo one must hope that someone at the war planning table asked "What happens if the remnant of the Iranian navy and army all gather in Hormuz and dig in?"
he isnt a master planner he himself doesnt know what he will do next or when
DeleteWars involve unpredictability. President Trump has advisers who plan and work out possible strategies. His job is to remain flexible and find a path that leads to victory in an environment that remains fluid and constantly shifting.
DeleteHe has -- incredibly -- found a tactic to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. It is a carrot and stick approach.
Carrot: he is allowing Iran to export 1.5 million barrels of oil a day on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz. So now Iran has an incentive to allow shipping to continue through the Strait of Hormuz.
Stick: If the Strait of Hormuz is mined or if shipping there is harassed, then President Trump will bomb the oil processing facilities on the island that generally processes 90% of the oil exports from Iran.