https://time.com/7265290/is-the-us-heading-into-a-recession-under-trump-what-to-know/
The U.S. consumer market saw a sharp decline last month for the first time in over two years, which Jacquez says is starting “to indicate that the resilient consumer is no longer spending at the pace that they used to be.” Consumer inflation expectations also soared in February.
It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, says Jacquez. When people are feeling good about the economy, it pushes them to spend and stimulate buying beyond just the essentials, to make long-term plans, to renovate and buy a home. If people are fearful and unsure about things such as whether or not mortgage prices will rise, they will not spend as much. Thus, the expectations of a recession can potentially have a “spiraling effect.”
Trump’s tariffs—including proposed reciprocal tariffs worldwide and a more intense trade war against America’s three biggest trading partners in Mexico, Canada, and China—are also a pivotal factor. Businesses are uncertain, Jacquez says, about what the economy is going to look like after the fallout of these tariffs ripple down different industries and the stock market. This can be unsettling, as what businesses “crave most” is certainty.
The business cycle is bigger than any government. Recessions can be delayed but not avoided by government policy. That's why, in parliamentary democracies where there's flexibility around election dates, governments will call elections when they see a recession coming rather than wait to have a campaign during one.
ReplyDeleteIs there some way to be notified when a new article is posted? Garnem Ironhead always seems to comment first
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