https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5713876-ai-displacement-and-ubi/
The most sobering warning comes from Geoffrey Hinton, one of the architects of modern AI. Hinton hasn’t joined the hype merchants. Instead, he has joined the alarmists. His claim is troubling: AI capability is effectively doubling every seven months. Not every decade. Not every few years. Every seven months.
At that pace, change doesn’t arrive gradually but in overwhelming waves. First, it replaces what we dismiss as “menial” cognitive work — call centers, customer service, scheduling, transcription. That phase is already underway. Then it moves into clerical roles, basic accounting, paralegal research, routine journalism, marketing copy, and compliance work. Those jobs are next. After that, no profession is spared, not even software engineering itself.
Lay out the timeline honestly, and it becomes terrifying. In 2026, AI replaces support roles. In 2027, it consumes administrative and clerical work. By 2028, it’s performing serious professional tasks at scale. By the early 2030s, much of white-collar America may no longer be necessary to the current economic structure.
It's not just America, although everyone would like to pretend it is and also blame Trump but this is way bigger than that.
ReplyDeleteAI is positioning itself to replace almost anything. Technology threatened before but you always needed people to run the technology. This time the technology can run itself.
This will sweep across the globe - huge chunks of every population of every country rendered unnecessary or obsolete. And what work will we find to replace what AI takes away?