Friday, May 17, 2024

What Would a U.S.-Iran War Look Like? One Word: Bloody.

 https://www.cato.org/commentary/what-would-us-iran-war-look-one-word-bloody

Going to war against Iran would be no minor matter, and President Trump is irresponsible to act in such a flippant manner. Attacking Iran could trigger a prolonged, costly nightmare in both treasure and blood. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D‑HI), a Democratic presidential candidate, likely is prophetic that a war against Iran would make the Iraq War look like a cakewalk. Tehran certainly has a multitude of ways to retaliate for U.S. aggression and to escalate the bilateral confrontation. U.S. leaders would be wise not to venture farther down that perilous path.

Why Iran and Israel Stepped Back From the Brink

 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/why-iran-and-israel-stepped-back-brink

The diplomatic surge succeeded in keeping the crisis contained. It also made clear that the United States’ highest priority is to prevent the war in Gaza from igniting a regional conflagration and dragging the United States into another costly war in the Middle East. A fact working in Washington’s favor is that neither Iran nor Israel is keen on direct conflict, their recent show of force notwithstanding. Iran understands that Israel is a nuclear state with superior conventional capabilities and that war with Israel would ultimately mean war with the United States. Israel, for its part, knows that a larger conflict with Iran would compel Hezbollah to fire many more missiles at Israeli cities and military facilities. Still, if the tenuous truce between Iran and Israel is to hold, Washington must remain deeply engaged. It must work closely with Israel to address the country’s security concerns, and it should build on the diplomatic progress it has made with Iran in recent weeks.

‘Delusional’: Bolton blasts Trump for saying Iranian attacks wouldn’t have happened on his watch

 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/14/bolton-trump-israel-iran-attacks-00152132

Former President Donald Trump told supporters Saturday that Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend “would not have happened if we were in office.” His former national security adviser says it was a ridiculous statement.

“I just think Trump is delusional on this point,” John Bolton said during an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “It’s a point that nobody can refute or confirm one way or the other. He doesn’t have any idea what to do in the Middle East in this situation.”

Trump’s rhetoric on thwarting Iran vs. his record

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/15/trumps-rhetoric-thwarting-iran-vs-his-record/

 But at least one Trump aide who was around in the months leading up to the early 2020 clash with Iran says Trump’s talking point is nonsense.

“I just think Trump is delusional on this point,” former Trump national security adviser John Bolton said Sunday on CNN. “It’s a point that nobody can refute or confirm one way or the other. He doesn’t have any idea what to do in the Middle East in this situation.”

Netanyahu urged Trump to attack Iran after he lost the presidency

 https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-urged-us-to-attack-iran-after-trumps-election-loss-report/

“In the months after the election, with Trump seemingly willing to do anything to stay in power, the subject of Iran was repeatedly raised in White House meetings with the President, and Milley repeatedly argued against a strike,” the New Yorker piece reported. Milley “was worried that Trump might set in motion a full-scale conflict that was not justified. Trump had a circle of Iran hawks around him,” it said, and Netanyahu “was also urging the Administration to act against Iran after it was clear that Trump had lost the election. 

Stealing from G-d

 Medrash Shmuel (Avos (02:11) One who steals from others is like one who steals from G-d since G-d makes restitution

Learning from nature

 Devarim Rabbah (05:02) Solomon said, ‘Go to the ant, thou sluggard; consider her ways, and be wise. ‘ So do you, too, Israel prepare for yourselves religious deeds in this world for the World to Come. And what is the meaning of, ’Consider her ways, and be wise’? The Rabbis say: Consider her good conduct, how she keeps away from robbery.

Abbott pardons man who fatally shot Black Lives Matter protester

 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/16/abbott-pardon-man-fatally-shot-black-lives-matter-protester-00158549

The former soldier said he acted in self-defense, claiming he fired his pistol when Foster, who was legally carrying an AK-47, pointed the rifle at him. Witnesses testified that they did not see Foster raise his weapon, and prosecutors argued that Perry could have driven away without shooting.

Weapons shipment delayed by US arrives in Israel

 https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/390097

Despite the US administration's threat to freeze arms shipments to Israel, due to the IDF's ground maneuver in Rafah, the arms shipment that had recently been delayed has arrived in Israel, Kan 11 News reported on Thursday.

A US official said that the decision to resume the transfer of weapons was made after Israel undertook to inform the United States in advance before expanding the ground maneuver in Rafah.

Thursday, May 16, 2024

U.S. Fixation on Nuclear Deal Let Iran Loose on the Middle East

 https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/25/us-iran-israel-hamas-war-nuclear-deal-biden-trump-obama/

But even the administration of former President Donald Trump did not deviate much from the path set by Obama and now followed by President Joe Biden. In 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA and announced the start of a so-called maximum pressure campaign toward Iran. Yet his administration did not come up with any plan for dealing with the ballistic missile program or regional interventions—despite Iran’s activities in Syria having become more extensive than they were during Obama’s time in office.

Trump’s Iran Failures Left Biden With No Choice But to Make a Deal

 https://time.com/6146540/trumps-iran-failures-biden-deal/

Once President, Trump’s closest national security advisors begged him not to tear up the deal. They told him the deal was working. Iran had lived up to its promises, shut down major parts of its nuclear program, and allowed the inspectors in. And that unlikely coalition Obama had constructed on Iran policy—America, Europe, China and Russia—was now assembled and ready to get to work on Iran’s other malevolent behavior, like its support for terrorist groups in the region. America was safer with the deal in place, they told him.

Iran: Background and U.S. Policy

 https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47321#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20government%20has%20used,Iranian%20threats%20to%20U.S.%20interests.

Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution that ushered in the Islamic Republic, Iran has presented a major foreign policy challenge for the United States, with successive U.S. Administrations identifying Iran and its activities as a threat to the United States and its interests. Of particular concern are the Iranian government’s nuclear program, its military capabilities, its support for armed factions and terrorist groups, and its partnerships with Russia and China. The U.S. government has condemned the Iranian government’s human rights violations and detention of U.S. citizens and others, and has wrestled with how to support protest movements in Iran. The U.S. government has used a range of policy tools intended to reduce the threat posed by Iran, including sanctions, limited military action, and diplomatic engagement. Despite these efforts, Iran’s regional influence and strategic capabilities remain considerable and have arguably increased.

Biden Admin. denies withholding Hamas leaders' locations from Israel

 https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/389891

A National Security Council official told the New York Post today (Monday), “We have already been helping Israel target Hamas’ leaders, and that work continues on an ongoing basis."

“We’re not holding anything back,’’ the official said. “We believe Sinwar should and indeed must be held accountable for the horrors of the October 7 attack.”

Last week, the Washington Post reported that the Biden Administration was using the intelligence on the locations of Hamas leaders as leverage to stop Israel's operation in Gaza.

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

House GOP pushes bill to force Biden to continue weapons transfers to Israel

 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-gop-pushes-israel-weapons-bill/story?id=110228315

New York Rep. Dan Goldman, a pro-Israel Jewish Democrat, called it a "misleading" measure brought by Republicans he said were seeking to score election-year political points.

Goldman said the "Republicans' latest messaging bill does nothing to materially help Israel's security, fundamentally mischaracterizes the President's statements and steadfast support for Israel since October 7, and simply requires commitments that the Administration has repeatedly made."

"As an American Jew, I am offended by the politicization and partisan manipulation of these very serious issues," Goldman said.