https://www.timesofisrael.com/how-close-was-iran-to-the-bomb-and-how-far-has-israel-pushed-it-back/
The more we learn, the clearer it becomes that Israel struck in the nick of time: Iran was very close to the bomb. Its ballistic missiles were becoming a dire threat. And then there’s that derided ‘Destruction of Israel Plan’
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was still more dramatic, characterizing Israel’s resort to force on Friday as preemptive action against an imminent “existential” threat. In a video address at the start of the campaign, Netanyahu said Iran had stockpiled enough uranium to build nine bombs, had taken unprecedented steps in recent months to weaponize that enriched uranium, and could get to the bomb “in a very short time — it could be a year, or it could be a few months.” (The IDF at the launch of the attacks said Iran could enrich enough uranium to weapons-grade level for 15 bombs “within days,” and did not specify how long it would take the regime to complete its nuclear weapons project.)
By contrast, CNN on Tuesday cited a host of American sources assessing that Iran was “up to three years away” from being able to build, deliver and detonate a bomb and asserting that it was not even “actively pursuing” one — an implausible claim, not least in light of the regime’s documented production of increased quantities of near-weapons-grade uranium with no civilian application.
As far as I have been able to determine from interactions with several sources familiar with the matter, Israel’s intelligence assessments are that Iran was very close indeed to attaining nuclear weapons — as in, building and delivering a working bomb. Closer, that is, even than Netanyahu’s public estimate.
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