Monday, September 2, 2019

Does anyone understand the 2020 race? This scholar nailed the blue wave — here's her forecast

My model for 2020 starts off with Democrats at 278 Electoral College votes, and that's a problem for Trump, because of course you need 270 to win. It does that because of my model's prediction, based on turnout and predicted vote share, that Pennsylvania and Michigan will slip back to the Democrats. I'm uncertain about Ohio, but even if Trump wins Ohio, he can't win the other three Midwestern states. Then as you point out I have four tossup states: Arizona, North Carolina, Florida and Iowa. Even if he wins all four of them, the Democrats have already won the election — and the idea that he would win all four is pretty unlikely. 


  1. These stuffy academic predictions are tiresome. We'll find out what becomes of them when the Constitution is suspended.

  2. sounds like you are living in the wrong society

    your contempt for democracy matches that of Trump

  3. The men who rebelled against the crown were also living in the wrong society. So they fixed it. The time has come to rebalance and move back towards monarchy again.

  4. “My model for 2020 starts off with Democrats at 278 Electoral College votes, and that's a problem for Trump, because of course you need 270 to win.”
    Nonsense. Ooh, I love today’s daf hayomi, allow me:
    K’rithoh 11a
    עזרא פרק י פסוק יט
    וַיִּתְּנוּ יָדָם לְהוֹצִיא נְשֵׁיהֶם וַאֲשֵׁמִים אֵיל צֹאן עַל אַשְׁמָתָם
    “They gave their word ויתנו ידם to expel their wives and, acknowledging their guilt, offered a ram from the flock to expiate it.” (Ezrah 10:19). And they gave their hand that they would put away their wives; and being guilty, they offered a ram of the flock for their guilt; said R. Hisda: This teaches that they had all had intercourse with designated handmaids מלמד שכולן שפחות חרופות בעלו [For which a guilt-offering is brought, as mentioned in the text.]. TO WHICH HANDMAID שפחה DOES THIS REFER etc. Our Rabbis taught: Redeemed might convey altogether free, therefore it continues, she is not [redeemed] [“If a man has carnal relations with a woman who is a slave and has been designated for another man, but has not been redeemed or given her freedom, there shall be an indemnity; they shall not, however, be put to death, since she has not been freed. But he must bring to the entrance of the Tent of Meeting, as his guilt offering to the Lord, a ram of guilt offering.” (Leviticus 19:20-21 )]. This on the other hand might convey not at all redeemed, therefore it reads redeemed. How is this possible? She is redeemed yet not wholly redeemed, viz., one who is half a slave and half a free person and is betrothed to a Hebrew slave. Thus the view of R. Akiba. R. Ishmael says: The text refers to a heathen bondmaid who is betrothed unto a Hebrew slave; while the phrase redeemed, she is not [redeemed] is used in accordance with the language of men [i.e., as a common parlance. The repetition of the verb redeem is only an emphasis, and is not to imply any law.].”
    I like R. Ishmael because I see the plain meaning is that the men brought the ram to expiate for the sin of שפחה חרופה, referring to men having sex with non-Jewish ladies. According to R. Ishmael the Torah is talking of simply non-Jewish ladies. Opponents of R Ishmael have far out, in my view, cases of half free half slaves or that they were engaged to a fellow slave. R. Ishmael gives the plain meaning. Interesting, the Sages ruled that in certain cases, the שפחה חרופה may be liable to lashes, but never the man having sex with the שפחה חרופה. Further, the Sages rules that in certain cases the man has to bring a sacrifice as in Ezra but never the שפחה חרופה. Sure, he’s Jewish and she’s not. No marriage takes place with a non-Jewish lady. Sadly, big topic in the USA today.


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