This Tuesday, March 17th, Israel's citizen's go to the polls to vote for the parties that will then form the new government. For the Charedi Jews of Israel nothing could be worse politically and economically than the fate that befell them after the last Israeli elections two years ago. They lost all access to political power and influence. Two years spent in the political wilderness as Lapid and Bennett and Netanyahu united to undercut the growing political and economic power of religious Jew. Yes, Bennett and his "Jewish Home" party were the continuation of the old Religious Zionist Mizrachi party, but really were washouts and regarded as sell-outs by the rest of religious Jewry not just in Israel but all over the world.
Fast forward two years and Netanyahu fires Yair Lapid ending a facade of "unity" that was really a front to oppose the growing power of religious Jewry in Israel. It is no secret that with the phenomenal birth rate of the Jewish religious population, from all spectrums, in Israel they are destined to become the dominant political power in the land as well as its electoral majority sooner rather than later. Everyone knows this. The leftist secular powers-that-be are in a panic, they know their days are numbered. They are basically on life-support with no new original ideas since they have dumped classical Zionism as outmoded and now receive huge funding and politically savvy advisors from all sorts of outside supporters to stay relevant. This too is no secret. The old-time Israeli right is in disarray and is struggling to find its voice as it does not want to be appear to be "religious" (that is why they got rid of Moshe Feiglin) while it cannot act as the leftists "right-wing" double either, so they are adrift and counting on old-time loyalty from supporters who just cannot bare the thought of voting for the Socialist-Bolshevik block that now calls itself "United Zionists" while it fools no one in particular.
The really fascinating developments are among the religious and Charedi Jews of Israel who having been forced out of government the last two years have had to reach deep within themselves to do house-cleaning and to come up with winning strategies to regain political influence and power in the next government coalition.
Among the Sefardim the most glaring change has come in the open split within the old-time SHAS party following so closely upon the passing of its mentor Rav Ovadia Yosef ZT"L. SHAS has split in two with Eli Yishai running under his own steam as the "Yachad Ha'am Itanu" party that is predicted to gain more than just the minimal four seats required for Knesset entry perhaps even outshining its old political home of SHAS. A new rabbinical name has suddenly appeared on the horizon as Eli Yishai party's mentor, Rav Meir Mazuz a very interesting Rov and Rosh Yeshiva from Bnai Brak of Djerba, North African, origins with more open-minded views coming to the fore and creating a broader coalition that SHAS was able to do in the past but is now not capable of doing. In SHAS the veteran politician Aryeh Deri has returned to take the reins with the support of the SHAS Moetzet Chachmei HaTorah. There was bad blood that spilled into the open as not-so-old videos of Rav Yosef discussing Aryeh Deri negatively were released, while Eli Yishai was publicly attacked by SHAS followers, with all parties claiming they are speaking for the true voice of MARAN Ovadia Yosef. Expect to see surprises from both these parties on Tuesday and they will probably bury the hatchet and cooperate closely to get into the next coalition. One thing is for sure, the face of Sefardic political unity is now gone forever.
Among Ashkenazi Charedim United Torah Judaism is the united parties of the Israeli Agudas Yisroel and the Degel HaTorah that are working solidly together with everyone giving great attention to the guidance they are getting from their united spiritual mentor Rav Shteinman in Bnai Brak.
One of the most fascinating and encouraging developments of the UTJ lists is that they have for the first time nominated a professional seasoned full time Israeli KIRUV leader, the head of the Lev LeAchim organization, Rav Eliezer Sorotzkin, as the potential "eighth man" representing UTJ in the next Knesset. This will be a most welcome change because until now none of the Charedi politicians elected to the Knesset were adept at the art of winning over the hearts and minds of fellow-secular Israelis. The picture one saw was often bifurcated and surreal that while in the Knesset religious MKs join in the melees of hurling insults at fellow Jews in the Knesset, at the same time on the outside the same Charedi PR organs that support UTJ wax lyrical about the need to MEKAREV the "Nefashos" of secular Israeli Jews.
So someone needed to make up their mind if they were going to use attack tactics or Kiruv tactics to get their way, and now, finally and long overdue, evidently Rav Shteinman has strongly supported the selection of Rav Eliezer Sorotzkin to lead the way. This is also a move to reach into secular circles for Charedi votes and altogether radical break with past tactics. If this move is successful as it will probably be, count on having more "user friendly" Charedi MKs join him in the not too distant future. As the old saying goes, you can "catch the bees" with "honey" a lot easier than with "vinegar"!
Rav Shteinman, as the RASHKEBEHAG, has been very clear and it has been reliably reported that he holds that Israeli Charedim have ONLY two choices, either to vote which he says is a Kiddush HaShem, or not to vote which he bluntly has stated is a Chillul HaShem! A very clear and stark choice that reflects the sense of urgency and the critical nature of the upcoming election.
It would seem that Yair Lapid has lost steam and popularity so that a big chunk of his past vote has now swung behind the Herzog-Livni block who are gloating and seem to be counting their chickens before they have hatched. Some Charedi politicians have said they will go with Herzog but it is VERY hard to see how Charedim will be welcomed by the same folks in the Herzog-Livni camp who have all the same issues with Charedim as Lapid and Yesh Atid people.
The Israeli left of today is not like the old-time Israeli Socialists of yester-decade. Those old timers were Bolsheviks but they spoke Yiddish and had a certain connection with Eastern Europe from where they came. Their parents and grandparents were usually frum. But today's Israeli left has LOST that connection entirely. They are more in tune with trends in Sweden, Germany and the USA with all the trimmings and bells and whistles of Modernity, such as gay rights, civil marriages, acceptance of Reform Judaism and all the sacred cows of ultra-liberals and ultra-leftists and left-wing agitators. So it is basically impossible to see how any Charedi politicians or rabbis will find a home with such types.
The natural allies of the Charedi and religious parties have always been the right-wing parties. This started in a big way when Rav Shach allowed the Charedi factions to bring Menachem Begin into power and continued with the Lubavitch and Chasidic support that helped Netanyahu come to power. A strong possible scenario is if as it seems the Charedi parties will win an increased number of seats in the next Knesset, then they will put Netanyahu back into power and demand that he adhere to their religious and social agendas. If for some reason the leftists win, CH"V, then expect the Charedi parties to spend even more time in the Israeli political wilderness. That in turn has resulted in a huge strengthening of bonds between Israeli and American Charedim who have marshaled their own limited financial forces to support Israeli Kollelim, Yeshivos and Kiruv schools and programs, not to mention directly supporting their sons and daughters who come to learn and live in Israel and the many family members who continue to move to and settle in Eretz Yisroel.
So in some ways, the frum world will have a "win-win" result: If the right wins, then the Charedi parties will presumably return to positions of influence, and if the Charedim are yet again locked out of the next government, they will not stop and they will continue to strengthen ALL the Torah bastions and Kehillos in Israel with increased FINANCIAL support from American Charedi sources more determined than ever to build for that inevitable time in the not so distant future when BY SHEER DINT OF NUMBERS Charedim and all types of Religious Jews will come to dominate Israel without any hindrance from secular harassment.
May HKB"H protect and bless the Jewish people everywhere! Amen!