https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/12/politics/anthony-fauci-congress-hearing/index.html
Dr.
Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House's coronavirus task
force, warned senators Tuesday that states and cities face serious
consequences if they open up too quickly, urging states not to reopen
until they know they have the capabilities to handle an inevitable
uptick in cases once they relax stay-at-home orders.
In
a high-profile hearing where witnesses and many lawmakers joined via
video conference, Fauci also told a Senate committee on Tuesday it was a
"bridge too far" for schools to expect a vaccine or widely available
treatment for Covid-19 by the time students return to campuses in the
fall, though he expressed optimism a vaccine would be developed in the
next year or two.
Alexander and other Republicans on the
panel viewed Tuesday's hearing as a showcase for what the administration
has been working on, hoping that the reputations of scientists like
Fauci would lend credibility to the work that is occurring. In his
opening statement, Alexander urged senators not to engage in
"finger-pointing" when the entire world underestimated the virus.
"As much as I respect you, Dr. Fauci, I
don't think you're the end-all," Paul said. "I don't think you're the
one person that gets to make a decision. We can listen to your advice,
but there are people on the other side saying there's not going to be a
surge and that we can safely open the economy. And the facts will bear
this out."
It all depends on whether you're a gambler or not.
ReplyDeleteI could make the following case - in all previous major pandemics, when the second wave has come it has been more contagious and less lethal than the first way. On the occasion there's a third way, that process continues. Eventually you get to where we are with the flu - annual waves with low lethality barring the emergence of a new novel strain. So yes, opening up after the first wave subsides could lead to a second wave but if it's more contagious and less lethal than you don't have the same massive death toll of the first wave and you have the establishment of herd immunity.
Now Dr Fauci is correctly concerned that this is a gamble. A second wave of CoVID could be as bad as the first and he wishes to avoid that. He wants to avoid massive death rates and a collapse of the medical system. The other side is willing to gamble that this won't happen and as a result of opening up, the economy is saved,
There were 3 different waves of illness during the pandemic, starting in March 1918 and subsiding by summer of 1919. The pandemic peaked in the U.S. during the second wave, in the fall of 1918. This highly fatal second wave was responsible for most of the U.S. deaths attributed to the pandemic. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm
ReplyDeletein 1918 the second wave was the most deadly! not a simple gamble!
And yet there were two subsequent flu epidemics in the 20th century, the last in 1968, neither of which had a more severe second wave. In addition, the 1918 second wave was directly attributed to people celebrating the end of World War I before the first wave had completely resolved. This reminds us that a return-to-normal must take place slowly.
ReplyDeleteFurther, look at Israel's numbers. The next two weeks will be crucial. Right now, no matter how fast Israel reopens, the number of new cases continues to drop to near insignificant levesl, B"H. However, we will have to watch and see if there's a spike after all those idiot Chareidim who gathered for Lag B'Omer reignited it. If there isn't a spike, that will say a lot about the potential for a second wave.
Finally, one thing that isn't being mentioned enough is the phenomenon of asymptomatic spread. Some epidemiologists believe that most of the population in an infected area has already been exposed by the time the outbreak is at its worst. yet only a small proportion show symptoms or become seriously ill. For all we know, most of the US and Israel have already run into the virus and shook it off. If that's the case, then it's another argument against a second wave.
so you have a double gamble
ReplyDeletethe alternative approach says lets assume the worst will happen and better to be pleasantly surprised then be overwhelmed by being unprepared
If there were no consequences, then I would support a full lockdown like Israel had. It would continue for months until the virus is fully controlled and a vaccine is developed.
ReplyDeleteBut there are consequences. The supply chain for food and important items would collapse. The economy would collapse. The outcomes of those things happening should frighten you as well.
A proper lockdown is unsustainable. A reopening has to be managed carefully but it has to start very soon.
" In addition, the 1918 second wave was directly attributed to people celebrating the end of World War I before the first wave had completely resolved."
ReplyDeleteAnd we are opening up society before the first wave of coronavirus has resolved. It's understandable they didn't have test-and-trace in 1918, but what is our excuse now? We cannot keep a lockdown more than a couple months, so businesses have to open. (But demand won't be the same due to fear and risk - something those angry about the lockdown completely ignore about the economic damage that would have happened even without a lockdown).
The question is how to do this safely. Test-and-trace is the only safe way to operate going forward. As you can see, the White house does this. They know it's the only safe way to operate.
The UFC who ran the first live sporting event since the shutdown knows this, as they did this for their event. They know this is the only safe way, yet they do not provide a population level system. That should cause any thinking person a lot of caution.
Go back to work, get a paycheck, pay the bills, etc. No doubt. But please wear masks indoors, avoid crowds, and avoid close talking with people. For our own safety, we need to implement physical/social distancing to the best of our abilities even if this isn't enforced on the population anymore and businesses are operating more than before. We can't be stupid.
Even after 6 weeks Lockdown in UK, we are still getting high numbers of deaths. Part of the economy, eg food, essential services etc remained open. It's impossible to isolate everyone 100%. So the virus will spread.
ReplyDeleteIt's very sad