Aside from the vast damage the war did to Iran’s military assets and the deaths of so many of the ruling cabal, this Memorandum of Understanding seems to leave things right back where they were before the bombs started dropping.
That is: Tehran hasn’t actually agreed to give up its nuclear program or its support of terror groups like Hezbollah and Hamas — but only to talk about it all some more.
Maybe the full MOU text makes things look better . . . or worse: The fact that it’s still a mystery isn’t encouraging.
When does the world get to see it?
If the Strait of Hormuz really opens, it’ll do one good thing — but the planned 60 days of talks could still yield a serious win for Tehran.
You know what are the most fascinating outcomes of this war?
ReplyDeleteOne is that the Arab states are now starting to build pipelines to move oil and gas so they don't have to worry about the Iranians and Houthis holding them hostage. In a couple of years, Hormuz will cease to be a strategic issue except for China which will continue to import all its old by sea from Iran.
Another is that China is once again getting screwed. What is China's big goal? Xi Jingping's "One China" policy which means the conquest of Taiwan. And in that last several years, what's happened?
A huge Russian army, loaded with Chinese equipment, has suffered massive losses in Ukraine while barely holding onto territory it grabbed in the first week of the war.
An even huger American military, along with Israel, has pounded Iran whose only modern defenses are ballistic missles. No navy anymore. No air force anymore. Just missles and with those Iran has fought the US to a stalemate.
Look at Taiwan. Lousy terrain right past the beach. Millions of active and reserve soldiers. A modern air force and air defense system and lots of missles of its own. Everyone looks at the map and says "Oooooh, China is so big it'll wipe our Taiwan" but other than some bombing and missles, it really can't do that much and now that its seen the two other big militaries in the world get humbled by relatively simpler militaries, what will it think when it comes to advance and prepared Taiwan?