Friday, April 11, 2025

Israel fears Trump may cut 'mediocre' nuke deal, impede IDF's ability to strike Iran

 https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-849751

There is a real danger that US President Donald Trump could agree to a mediocre nuclear deal with Iran, multiple top Israeli sources have told The Jerusalem Post.

If Trump does agree to such a deal, some of the sources are deeply concerned that the president may circumscribe the IDF’s current unique opportunity to strike the Islamic Republic.

We Just Saw the Cracks in Trump’s Wall of Power

 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/10/donald-trump-vulnerabilities-tariffs-budget-00283251

It was a striking one-two punch attacking the narrative that has surrounded Trump since November — that he is a political juggernaut able to run roughshod over his party and beyond to get his way on everything from economic policy to his choice for Cabinet secretaries. On Wednesday, Trump implicitly acknowledged there are, in fact, checks on his power: the markets and, if you squint, his own party.

Vocal supporter and hedge fund mogul Bill Ackman warned Trump of a “self-induced economic nuclear winter” and accused Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick of profiting from a bad economy. And the discontent even spread to the podcasting bros who helped connect Trump with a legion of young men during the 2024 campaign, including Barstool Sports’ David Portnoy, who claimed to have lost $20 million after Trump introduced his latest tariffs, with Daily Wire’s Ben Shapiro calling it “about as bad a rollout as you can do.”

“The idea that this is inherently good and makes the American economy strong is wrongheaded,” Shapiro told his viewers. “It’s untrue. The idea that it is going to result in massive re-shoring of manufacturing is also untrue.”

Does Trump Have a China Trade Strategy?

 https://www.wsj.com/opinion/china-tariffs-donald-trump-trade-markets-scott-bessent-tiktok-b30bce47?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

It’s all going according to plan, says the White House, and you almost have to smile at this spin in trying to sell President Trump’s partial tariff reversal this week as a triumph. The reality is that Mr. Trump is making it up as he goes, and it would help if he had an actual strategy to deal with China in particular.

Stocks staged a relief rally on Wednesday, but a day later fell again. What investors know is that the trade war is far from over and damage persists. Even with the 90-day pause, the tariffs that continue are the largest tax increase since 1982. They’re bigger than Bill Clinton’s 1993 tax increase and George H.W. Bush’s in 1990. Taxes are anti-growth.

Then there’s the trade-war escalation with China, the world’s second largest economy. The White House said Thursday that the U.S. tariff on all Chinese exports to the U.S. will now be 145%. In 2024 the U.S. imported $439 billion in goods from China, so apply 145% to that and you get a sense of the hit to U.S. consumers and businesses.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the U.S. trade goal all along has been to isolate China as a main offender. There’s good reason to treat China differently given its often predatory trade practices. These include cyber attacks on U.S. companies and government; intellectual property theft; unequal treatment of U.S. firms in China; and Covid lies.

U.S., China Are Going to Economic War, and Everyone Will Suffer

 https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/us-china-tariffs-trade-war-6f143252?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1

In jacking up his tariffs on China—and pausing steep duties on dozens of other nations—President Trump is pushing the world’s two biggest economic powers into a battle that will leave neither unscathed and risks tanking the global economy. 

A US-China trade war could be catastrophic. What is Trump’s endgame strategy?

 https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/11/politics/trump-china-trade-war-tariffs-strategy/index.html

 The fast-worsening trade war between the United States and China – the planet’s premier geopolitical powers, whose economies are intricately entwined – threatens to wreak severe damage on both nations and will send shockwaves worldwide.

Since President Donald Trump launched this potential cataclysm, it’s fair to ask whether he’s got a strategy and how he sees the endgame.

As usual, Trump is improvising. His stunning escalation in tariffs on China this week didn’t follow any meaningful formula. He’s acting, as he always does, like a real estate shark, raising the stakes to intolerable levels to seek leverage. It’s the latest manifestation of the “madman theory,” by which Trump conjures the most extreme of circumstances to try to spook his opponents.

“We’re now in a huge (trade) war with China, and the tariffs that have been imposed on China are what I would call prohibitive,” former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Zain Asher and Bianna Golodryga on CNN International Thursday. “They’re going to result in massive impacts on the United States and the global economy. No one knows where these policies are headed.”

If trade dies out between the US and China, the consequences will be painful. The price of goods that form a vital part of American life could shoot up. This could fuel inflation, worsening the quality of life for millions and hurting consumer confidence, which in turn could tip the US into a recession.

This means that a trade war between the US and China could become a grueling test of which populace can take the most economic pain.

Thursday, April 10, 2025

Falseability is Basis of Science

 The ability to describe the conditions that a statement or belief can be said to be false is what distinguishes science from idolatry and magic. What are the circumstance that determine whether someone is a failed leader? This is not hair splitting philosophy. We have a president who has destroyed the economy destroyed the ability of government to provide basic services. And yet this is ascribed to genius not incompetence. He is a corrupt criminal vindictive individual  and yet he is described as G-d's messenger. Please let me know the parameters of competence other than saying if he supports Israel he can do no wrong

Adam Schiff Calls For Insider Trading Investigation into Trump Over Tariff Pause

 https://time.com/7276234/trump-tariff-insider-trading-schiff/

Senator Adam Schiff on Wednesday called on Congress to investigate whether President Donald Trump engaged in insider trading or market manipulation when he abruptly paused a sweeping set of tariffs, a move that sent stock prices skyrocketing.

“I’m going to do my best to find out,” Schiff, a California Democrat, tells TIME. “Family meme coins and all the rest of it are not beyond insider trading or enriching themselves. I hope to find out soon.”

Schiff’s comments regarding a formal inquiry, which has not been previously reported, came soon after the S&P 500 surged more than 9% Wednesday afternoon after Trump announced the tariff pause. “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” Trump posted on Truth Social minutes after the market opened on Wednesday, along with the letters “DJT,” which stands for both his initials and the ticker for his media company.

Stocks Plummet as China Trade War Sinks In

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-10-25?mod=WSJ_home_supertoppertop_pos_1

 Dow falls more than 1,700 points, Nasdaq sheds over 5%; White House says China tariff is 145%

Trump concedes there may be "transition problems" as markets plunge again following tariff pause

 https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-tariffs-cnn-town-hall-04-10-25/index.html

President Donald Trump offered a more sober assessment of the aftermath of his decision to pause some tariffs for 90 days, while convening his Cabinet to discuss next steps.

After taking a victory lap Wednesday, the president on Thursday acknowledged some “transition problems” could be expected – comments that come as the Dow is again tumbling after a historic rally.

“A big day yesterday. There will always be transition difficulty – but in history, it was the biggest day in history, the markets. So we’re very, very happy with the way the country is running. We’re trying to get the world to treat us fairly,” Trump said in the Cabinet Room.

He continued, “We think we’re in very good shape. We think we’re doing very well. Again, there’ll be a transition cost and transition problems, but in the end, it’s going to be a beautiful thing.”

The president praised his Cabinet, whom he has tasked with plans on how to proceed with trade deals and negotiation with China in what is becoming an intensifying trade war with Beijing.

Wall St Sell Off Resumes As Trump Fails To Soothe Market Turmoil

 https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-administration-tariffs-eu-china-pause-live-updates-2057911

The Dow plunged over 4.3% points Thursday; S&P 500 fell 5%; Nasdaq dropped 5.9%.

Trump's tariff on Chinese goods now sits at a minimum of 145%, up from the 125% announced Wednesday.

The 145% rate includes an earlier 20% levy tied to fentanyl-related sanctions.

U.S. inflation cooled in March, but economists warn new tariffs could soon reverse that trend.

The U.S. dollar index sank 2%, its lowest since early October.

The EU paused retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods for 90 days, signaling a fragile easing in broader trade tensions.

Maddow blasts Trump's 'terrible, absolutely ridiculous way to run a government'

Fox News Reporter Bursts MAGA Bubble: Trump ‘Capitulated’

 https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-reporter-bursts-maga-bubble-trump-capitulated/

A Fox News correspondent had to pump the breaks on the network’s attempts to frame Donald Trump’s sudden 90-day pause on his sweeping tariff plan as an example of his brilliant negotiating prowess.

“Let’s be clear about what happened, who capitulated here and why,” he said on Wednesday. “I don’t want to say this because I am a patriot, I am an American, but it is the White House who capitulated, based on everything I hear and all my sources.

RFK Jr. Has Stunning Response to Cuts to Vital Public Health

 https://www.thedailybeast.com/rfk-jr-has-stunning-response-to-cuts-to-vital-public-health/

CBS News chief medical correspondent Dr. Jon LaPook asked the secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) on Wednesday if he had personally approved the more than $11 billion proposed cuts to programs addressing mental health, infectious diseases, addiction, and childhood vaccination. Kennedy, however, alleged that he had no knowledge of them.

Bewildered GOP Had No Idea Trump Changed His Mind on Tariffs

 https://www.thedailybeast.com/bewildered-gop-had-no-idea-trump-changed-his-mind-on-tariffs/

The reactions from Donald Trump’s congressional allies proved how little they knew about his decision-making process.

Republican lawmakers may be expressing their relief at Trump’s U-turn on global tariffs—but it appears that none of them knew it was coming.
Trump’s congressional allies were publicly supporting Trump’s erratic tariff decisions as recently as 15 minutes before the president announced a 90-day “pause,” reducing the higher-rate “reciprocal” tariffs to 10 percent for almost all countries, except China.
“I still don’t know what his total strategy is. We know what his goal was... I don’t know what the end game is here,” Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson told CNN.