Is medical research facing a replication crisis?

https://www.castoredc.com/blog/replication-crisis-medical-research/

 In the past few years, there has been a growing controversy surrounding the validity of a number of cornerstone medical research papers. For example, Amgen, a US biotech company, attempted to replicate 53 high-impact cancer research studies and were reportedly able to replicate only six. Similarly, researchers from Bayer, a German pharmaceutical company, reported that they were only able to replicate 24 out of 67 studies. Moreover, John Ioannidis, MD, Professor of Medicine and Statistics at Stanford University—a strong voice in the replication debate—showed that of 45 of the most influential clinical studies, only 44% were successfully replicated.

 

Police nab American who fled to Israel amid child sex abuse allegations in 2010

https://www.timesofisrael.com/police-nab-american-who-fled-to-israel-amid-child-sex-abuse-allegations-in-2010/

Police on Sunday arrested a Brooklyn native who has been illegally residing in Israel since 2010 amid allegations that he sexually abused his female relatives, a law enforcement official said.

While the identity of the suspect was revealed in the American press shortly after he fled the country, the Justice Ministry has placed a gag order barring the publication of the man’s name in order to protect the identities of the alleged victims.

The suspect was arrested in southern Israel and brought on Monday before the Jerusalem District Court, where a representative from the International Affairs Division of the State Prosecutor’s Office filed a petition for extradition back to the US.

 

On foreign policy, Trump flouts risks that gave others pause

https://www.timesofisrael.com/on-foreign-policy-trump-flouts-risks-that-gave-others-pause/

 US President Donald Trump is not the first American leader to have Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in his sights, but he was the first to pull the trigger.

It’s a pattern that has emerged throughout Trump’s presidency. On a range of national security matters, he has cast aside the same warnings that gave his predecessors in both parties pause.

At times, he has simply been willing to embrace more risk. In other moments, he has questioned the validity of the warnings altogether, even from experts within his own administration. And he has publicly taken pride in doing so.

 Trump’s willingness to buck conventional thinking has been a defining feature of his political life. As he enters the final year of his first term, aides and allies describe him as increasingly emboldened to act on his instincts. He’s banished the coterie of advisers who viewed themselves as “guardrails” against his impulse. Others, like former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, have left because they disagreed with Trump’s decision-making.

Dan Shapiro.: 'Iran has capabilities far beyond al-Qaeda or ISIS'

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/274041

 Soleimani, head of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was eliminated Thursday night in a US drone strike near the Baghdad International Airport in Iraq.

"Qasem Soleimani had the blood of many thousands on his hands: Americans, Iraqis, Lebanese, Syrians, Israelis & many, many others. Truly one of the most evil men on the planet. Seeing his smiling mug in selfies with terrorists across the region was hard to take. Good riddance," Shapiro tweeted.

"That he deserved this fate, a fate he authored for so many others, is not in question. The ability to carry it out is also impressive, as an intelligence and operational achievement. To take a decision like this has major strategic consequences. Iran has capabilities far beyond al-Qaeda or ISIS when their leaders were eliminated. And they will have many opportunities to respond.

"The question is, will the US and our allies be ready? To state the obvious, careful, strategic, fact-based planning is not a hallmark of our current President. So there is plenty of risk in this moment."

 

Did the Killing of Qassim Suleimani Deter Iranian Attacks, or Encourage Them?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/04/world/middleeast/qassim-suleimani-deter-iran.html

“He was a monster, no question,” said Vipin Narang, an M.I.T. political scientist who has studied efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear program. “But there’s a consequentialist argument as well.”

Using retribution as justification can be straightforward in criminal proceedings, where judges and juries can apply the law without considering strategic consequences. But that logic does not apply in foreign policy, analysts said.

“The underlying reason that we don’t go around killing all bad people is that we usually make a decision about which bad people it’s in our interest to kill at this time,” said Lindsay P. Cohn, a foreign policy scholar at the Naval War College, who spoke in a personal capacity. Relying on retribution alone as a basis for such action, she said, is “fundamentally unstrategic.”

If the killing of General Suleimani creates a precedent for assassinating senior government figures, he said, American officials and their allies could become targets as well. And that would be a source of broad global instability. 
 “We killed people inside their sovereign territory, without the permission of the government,” Dr. Cohn said, noting that the American airstrike also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iraqi militia leader aligned with Iran, and other Iraqis. “This is a massive violation of sovereignty.”

Iraq Updates: Parliament Endorses Ousting of U.S. Troops

 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/05/world/middleeast/iraq-iran-general-soleimani.html

Many in Iraq considered America’s killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, a top Iranian commander, in Baghdad as an assault on its sovereignty.

Assassination or defensive action? Soleimani killing ignites freighted debate

https://www.timesofisrael.com/assassination-or-defensive-action-soleimani-killing-ignites-freighted-debate/

 After Friday’s targeted killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, newsrooms struggled with the question: Had the United States just carried out an assassination? And should news stories about the killing use that term?

The AP Stylebook, considered a news industry bible, defines assassination as “the murder of a politically important or prominent individual by surprise attack.”

Although the United States and Iran have long been adversaries and engaged in a shadow war in the Middle East and elsewhere, the US has never declared formal war on Iran. So the targeted killing of a high Iranian state and military official by a surprise attack was “clearly an assassination,” said Mary Ellen O’Connell, an expert in international law and the laws of war at the University of Notre Dame School of Law.

 

The neoconservative fantasy at the center of the Soleimani killing

 https://www.vox.com/2020/1/3/21048096/soleimani-strike-killing-neoconservatism-pompeo-trump

But Eric Brewer, a long-time intelligence official who recently left Trump’s National Security Council after working on Iran, doesn’t find that narrative compelling. “Soleimani’s death is not going to end Iranian influence in Iraq,” he told me, “nor is it likely to lead to some sort of regime change uprising in Iran.”

There are a few reasons for that.

First, Iranian influence is already well entrenched inside Iraq’s military and political structures; removing Soleimani from the equation doesn’t change that. Second, Iraqis and Iranians have shown they are willing to push for better governance without US military intervention spurring them to action. In fact, Iraqi protests recently led some of the leadership there to resign, partly fueled by the perception that Iran was really running Iraqi affairs of state. And today there are already large-scale anti-US demonstrations sweeping Iran after the Soleimani killing.

Third, US-Iran history over the last few decades makes everyday Iranians skeptical of American intentions in the country, especially Washington’s involvement in the 1953 coup of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh. (There was an anti-government movement to remove President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from power when Barack Obama was president, and he chose not to get involved so it didn’t seem like the US was meddling.)

Finally, there’s the hypocrisy problem: The US has no qualms about supporting other authoritarian regimes around the world, including Iran’s chief rival Saudi Arabia.

Given many options, aides were reportedly surprised Trump ordered Soleimani hit

https://www.timesofisrael.com/given-multiple-options-aides-surprised-trump-ordered-soleimani-strike-report/

Most national security officials did not want to attack Soleimani in Iraq, given the presence of US troops there and the already tenuous situation on the ground. Some argued for the operation to occur when Soleimani was traveling in Lebanon or Syria. But when they learned Soleimani would be traveling to Baghdad on January 2, they decided targeting him at the airport was their best opportunity.

The White House traditionally notifies senior members of both parties in the Senate and House of Representatives ahead of major military action. But top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer “was not given advanced notice” of the strike, a senior Democratic aide told AFP.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the administration conducted the airstrike without consultation of Congress or an authorization for use of military force against Iran. The strike conducted against Soleimani “went forward with no notification or consultation with Congress,” House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Eliot Engel similarly said in a statement.

American Allies React With Concern, Cautious Support Following U.S. Killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani

https://time.com/5758330/us-allies-respond-qasem-soleimani-assassination/

 But Netanyahu also reportedly instructed his ministers not to discuss Soleimani’s death publicly. That could be out of fear of retaliation; the Quds Force and Iran-backed militias in Syria are already engaged in a proxy war with Israel. In Lebanon, Iran’s proxy Hezbollah has more than 100,000 rockets capable of hitting the whole of Israel.

“This is great news for the Israelis,” says Patrikarakos. “Unless, of course, Hezbollah starts launching missiles into Israel.”

Still, barring full regime change, Netanyahu would prefer to see the U.S. coax Iran into giving up its nuclear weapons program and ending its proxy wars in the Middle East, as opposed to all-out war, according to Ofer Zalzberg, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, an NGO that monitors and works to prevent conflict globally. “Netanyahu fears this incident lacks a broader U.S. strategy and would either merely escalate dynamics without restraining Iran’s nuclear program and regional activities, or that it would even boomerang, notably with U.S. withdrawal from Iraq,” Zalzberg tells TIME.

Fox News host Geraldo trashes Trump’s Iran moves on air