https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-24/why-a-second-wave-of-covid-19-is-already-a-worry-quicktake
3. So how does a virus come back?
There are a number of possibilities. In the case of influenza, there’s the onset of cool weather, a factor that may affect
the coronavirus, too. Or the pathogen can mutate. This is another
feature of flu, which mutates more or less constantly. In the fall of
1918, a second wave of the historic influenza outbreak occurred and
caused most of the deaths in the pandemic. Some researchers believe it was brought about by a mutation
that made the virus again unrecognizable to most people’s immune
systems. Another important variable is the movement of the virus to
populations that haven’t been exposed before and don’t have immunity. In
addition, the World Health Organization said on April 24 that there’s
no evidence yet that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have
antibodies are protected from a second infection.
Multiple waves are a given. Look at influenza - we get a new waves every winter. Once every fifty years there's a noval mutation that causes an epidemic, otherwise we anticipate with the flu shot and control it.
ReplyDeleteThere's no reason to believe CoVID will be different. We will likely have annual waves and once there's a vaccine it'll be offered annual alongside the flu shot. Once in a while there might be a novel mutation but, like the flu, it'll be the exception, not the rule.
since we know very little about Covid why take the chance - that is Fauci's view
ReplyDeleteActually there is reason to believe Covid19 will be different. Coronavirus is a much slower mutating virus compared to influenza. It is possible that new strains won't appear every year but rather after every few years, or possibly even never.
ReplyDeleteThe reason there may be a second wave now or in the near term future is that we haven't reached anywhere near population level herd immunity, and there are still active cases circulating. That means if we re-engage socially, we increase the transmission of the same virus again to the remaining susceptible population which is large.
Even in NY which got hit the worst in the US, only around 20% show antibodies in the serology studies. That means 80% of the population is still susceptible, so it hasn't even gotten close to burning through the population yet.
You can't keep a society locked down forever. This has dire health consequences in addition to economic consequences. In March and April, people couldn't even get cancer screenings or routine procedures that are often lifesaving. And we know about economic depression and suicides. The temporary shutdown should have been used to build up surplus PPE and design and implement a test-and-trace system, SO THAT we can open back up safely. (Was that done in even 1 out of the 50 states? Not that I can see).
Have no misconception here, if we re-engage in groups again, we will see a month or so of insidious spreading, case numbers start to rise, and then the same problem on our hands. For this reason it is CRITICAL to maintain caution, DISTANCE, face masks, hand washing, etc. as businesses reopen. PLEASE take my advice.
The opposing view is that since the CoVID first wave pandemic has performed identically to all other major first wave pandemics, there is ample reason to predict that the second wave will be far less dangerous. It's the "the last 5 cars with a muffler you showed me need gas, so I guess this one with a muffler does too"
ReplyDeleteThat is the basis for the vaccine design by Imperial College London, ie the mutations are quite slow compared to influenza.
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