Take Mr Trump's tweet on Monday morning as Wall Street was in freefall. "So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!" But while common influenza is most certainly a killer, experts estimate that the coronavirus is markedly deadlier. So at the same time as the president is tweeting this, officials are on the airwaves saying the crisis is real, that Americans need to respond, and it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
It is much more lethal than the flu, and you are sorely mistaken to suggest otherwise. The current number of dead is irrelevant to the question. Italy's hospital system has been completely overwhelmed. Without drastic measures to mitigate spread in society, we may face similar catastrophe here. We need to be vigilant and employ the tried and true, proven social distancing methods. And before you erroneously refer to this as "panic," it's not. This is rational and sane evidence-based decision-making with foresight.
You're not grasping how it works. Telling me the number of deaths at the *Beginning of an outbreak* is low compared to flu, is essentially a straw man argument that misses the point. The problem is what it could become. And if there are already people in hospitals for flu, and an assortment of other ailments and organ problems, now what do you do with the massive influx of new cases of viral pneumonia about to explode into that system? How do you continue to provide proper care and treat all the new patients when you run out of beds and ventilators? Look at what is happening in Italy.
In addition to a *higher percentage of the severe cases requiring more ICU resources* (compared to flu's severe cases), Covid19 has higher R0 and higher CFR than flu, so the problem is what that could turn into. It is just math.
As an analogy, if 2 can turn into 2 million by doing nothing, it doesn't make sense to tell me 2 is a not a problem and we should do nothing because 2 is less than 1000. 2 isn't gonna remain 2, and it's going to blow past 1000, if we do nothing.
UK epidemiologists and chief scientist are proposing a different approach but in order to tackle the problem you have raised. They are trying to delay the peak till spring summer, so that flu peak is over. However, absolute numbers are still higher with flu. No idea why Italy has such high deaths compared to China _ when China has 20X population of Italy.
That's right, it's a contradictory policy, which they have now discarded. BTW, herd immunity applies to a vaccinated population. They got that one wrong as well.
Yes, this is not the flu. The flu has infected and killed far more people in North American than Covid.
ReplyDeleteand therefore there is nothing to be concerned about?!
ReplyDeleteTake Mr Trump's tweet on Monday morning as Wall Street was in freefall. "So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!"
ReplyDeleteBut while common influenza is most certainly a killer, experts estimate that the coronavirus is markedly deadlier. So at the same time as the president is tweeting this, officials are on the airwaves saying the crisis is real, that Americans need to respond, and it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51803890
It is much more lethal than the flu, and you are sorely mistaken to suggest otherwise.
ReplyDeleteThe current number of dead is irrelevant to the question.
Italy's hospital system has been completely overwhelmed. Without drastic measures to mitigate spread in society, we may face similar catastrophe here. We need to be vigilant and employ the tried and true, proven social distancing methods.
And before you erroneously refer to this as "panic," it's not. This is rational and sane evidence-based decision-making with foresight.
Flu deaths are not making the news, even though they are greater in numbers. In UK, hospitals are full of people with flu, not covid19.
ReplyDeleteYou're not grasping how it works. Telling me the number of deaths at the *Beginning of an outbreak* is low compared to flu, is essentially a straw man argument that misses the point. The problem is what it could become.
ReplyDeleteAnd if there are already people in hospitals for flu, and an assortment of other ailments and organ problems, now what do you do with the massive influx of new cases of viral pneumonia about to explode into that system? How do you continue to provide proper care and treat all the new patients when you run out of beds and ventilators? Look at what is happening in Italy.
In addition to a *higher percentage of the severe cases requiring more ICU resources* (compared to flu's severe cases), Covid19 has higher R0 and higher CFR than flu, so the problem is what that could turn into. It is just math.
As an analogy, if 2 can turn into 2 million by doing nothing, it doesn't make sense to tell me 2 is a not a problem and we should do nothing because 2 is less than 1000. 2 isn't gonna remain 2, and it's going to blow past 1000, if we do nothing.
UK epidemiologists and chief scientist are proposing a different approach but in order to tackle the problem you have raised. They are trying to delay the peak till spring summer, so that flu peak is over.
ReplyDeleteHowever, absolute numbers are still higher with flu. No idea why Italy has such high deaths compared to China _ when China has 20X population of Italy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1xL_70H2O0
ReplyDeleteYou don't delay the peak by letting people spread it freely! The UK "herd immunity" strategy is not very smart at all.
ReplyDeleteThat's right, it's a contradictory policy, which they have now discarded. BTW, herd immunity applies to a vaccinated population. They got that one wrong as well.
ReplyDelete