The economic game of chicken between Iran and the US is about to enter a dangerous new phase

 https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/14/business/economic-impact-us-iran-blockade

But the blockade will require serious military power to enforce, putting US troops in harm’s way – a consequence the US has largely avoided so far by conducting the majority of its attack from the air. Putting boots on enemy ships and taking control of dangerous waters threatens to increase the US death toll.

Americans are already largely opposed to the war, and the blockade risks two outcomes they have demonstrated no tolerance of: even higher gas prices and troop casualties. Trump is betting Iran will blink first, but Iran has withstood severe economic pain before, and there’s little evidence it is prepared to back down from this existential fight.

“Oil’s game of chicken continues to escalate,” said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Market and a former CIA analyst. “I’m not sure either side is prepared to swerve.”

So, who will blink first?

“Time is working in Iran’s favor,” said Rauball.

“Iran has dealt with devastating sanctions before, and they never abandoned their right to enrich uranium,” Croft said.

“Iran can probably hold out longer than the US Navy would care to enforce the blockade,” added Karen Young, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

Three votes for Iran.