The Early Verdict on Tariffs: Bad Economics, Better Politics

 https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/the-early-verdict-on-tariffs-bad-economics-better-politics-2d0bebb7?mod=hp_lead_pos5

With Donald Trump’s return to power has come an upswell of enthusiasm for tariffs and arguments in their favor: They’ll usher in an economic “golden age,” don’t cause inflation, are paid by foreigners instead of Americans, and are an effective cudgel in political disputes.

Most economists disagree, but who listens to economists these days? To test these claims we need “natural experiments”: events where the effect of tariffs isn’t confounded by other stuff like promised cuts to taxes and regulations. The 72 hours in which Trump was on track to hit Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs is one such experiment.