https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/02/united-states-russia-sanctions-00012849
The last time Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine, U.S. sanctions tipped the Russian economy into recession. This time, the Americans and their European allies have leveled penalties that could lead to a full-on economic collapse.
Meanwhile, though the measures have sent shockwaves through Russia’s economy, it’s not yet clear what short-term relief they might bring to Ukraine.
“At this point, it’s not saving lives in Ukraine, but it is a huge show of unity across the world with the exception of a few important countries, especially China,” said Crebo-Rediker, now an adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “It shows that behavior like this is not acceptable, and there are consequences.
On the other hand, the local newspaper suggested that these sanctions aren't about ending the war but simply establishing the going price for invading one's neighbour. If one can pay it, one can go ahead with the invasion.
ReplyDeleteAfghanistan invasion by comrade Brezhnev suffered both from weapons donated to the mujaheddin, and sanctions against the USSR.
ReplyDeleteInitially he was willing to pay the price. but these things mount up , and when they have shortages in their supermarkets that's when they're unwilling to pay the price and it's food
In Afghanistan the Soviets were able to declare victory and leave. They won't be able to do this in Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteWell, on this I suppose I take a slightly different view, as I am a double cynic.
ReplyDeleteGorbatchev was President at the time, and he was beginning Perestroika. He saw the futility of the operation there, and it had high costs, economically and in human lives. The west only backed the mujaheddin so as to break the Soviets, but they paid for it, in training Jihadis.
In Ukraine there is a "fog of war". It could become a total occupation, and a new "greater russia" or Soviet Union lite. It could go disasterously, if enough weapons are fed to the Ukranians and presumably other mercenaries there, to pick off russian tanks and planes with western tech.
They might be satisfied with a partial withdrawal, and a negotiated deal with the West to lift sanctions.
We don't know what America's end game is in this - is it regime change in Russia? Another gorbatchev like figure, who will turn it into a modern democracy? Perhaps that is why they wish to destroy the Russian economy, but they are very wealthy in minerals, grains, energy, which they can basically barter with China for all there needs.
So there are a number of scenarios, nobody is certain which way it will go, even Putin and Biden do not know what the final outcome will be.
Gorbachev also had the advantage of using his new system to his advantage. "The old guys," he said, " got you into this useless war! I say 'Enough!' and will bring our boys home." Putin can't do that. Someone has to replace him.
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