Tuesday, January 7, 2020
Trump repeatedly claimed in 2011 and 2012 that Obama would start a war with Iran to win reelection
"Our President will start a war with Iran because he has absolutely no ability to negotiate," Trump said in a November 2011 video on his YouTube channel.
"He's weak, and he's ineffective," Trump added. "So I believe that he will attack Iran sometime prior to the election, because he thinks that's the only way he can get elected."
Speaking on the Sean Hannity radio program in January 2012, Trump predicted "some kind of a war" with Iran prior to that year's election.
"I say that he starts a war in Iran before the election, which will make it very hard for the Republican to win," Trump said. "He'll start a war, you know, lives will be wasted for no reason."
"I think it's going to happen sometime prior to the election. There'll be some kind of a war started," added Trump.
On Fox News' On the Record in February 2012 Trump said it was "pretty sad" to say, but said Obama would go to war nonetheless.
"I've said before, I think Obama will go to war with Iran because I think he views it as good politically," Trump said. "That's pretty sad and it's a pretty sad thing to have to say, but I think he will absolutely go to war with Iran. I think he views that as a positive from a political standpoint, and I think he's just waiting for the right moment."
Speaking on the Laura Ingraham Show in April 2012, Trump repeated his prediction. "I happen to think that the president is going to start a war with Iran," said Trump. "I think it'll be a short term popular thing to do. And I think he's going to do that for political reasons."
Trump made the same prediction on Fox News' Justice with Judge Jeanine that month.
"In my opinion, Obama will start a war," Trump said. "For about three weeks it'd be very popular about, by the way, six months later he'll be very unpopular, but by that time it's too late."
"Well, I think that he would do it," Trump continued. "I do believe he will do it -- whether he does it under the guise of Israel or not -- but I do believe he would do it. I've been making that prediction. Let's see what happens. Many of my predictions, as you know better than anybody have come true."
Is medical research facing a replication crisis?
https://www.castoredc.com/blog/replication-crisis-medical-research/
In the past few years, there has been
a growing controversy surrounding the validity of a number of
cornerstone medical research papers. For example, Amgen, a US biotech
company, attempted to replicate 53 high-impact cancer research studies
and were reportedly able to replicate only six. Similarly, researchers from Bayer, a German pharmaceutical company, reported that they were only able to replicate 24 out of 67 studies.
Moreover, John Ioannidis, MD, Professor of Medicine and Statistics at
Stanford University—a strong voice in the replication debate—showed that of 45 of the most influential clinical studies, only 44% were successfully replicated.
Monday, January 6, 2020
Police nab American who fled to Israel amid child sex abuse allegations in 2010
https://www.timesofisrael.com/police-nab-american-who-fled-to-israel-amid-child-sex-abuse-allegations-in-2010/
Police on Sunday arrested a Brooklyn native who has been illegally
residing in Israel since 2010 amid allegations that he sexually abused
his female relatives, a law enforcement official said.
While the identity of the suspect was revealed in the American
press shortly after he fled the country, the Justice Ministry has placed
a gag order barring the publication of the man’s name in order to
protect the identities of the alleged victims.
The suspect was arrested in southern Israel and brought on Monday
before the Jerusalem District Court, where a representative from the
International Affairs Division of the State Prosecutor’s Office filed a
petition for extradition back to the US.
Sunday, January 5, 2020
On foreign policy, Trump flouts risks that gave others pause
https://www.timesofisrael.com/on-foreign-policy-trump-flouts-risks-that-gave-others-pause/
US President Donald Trump is not the first American leader to have
Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in his sights, but he was the first to
pull the trigger.
It’s a pattern that has emerged throughout Trump’s presidency. On
a range of national security matters, he has cast aside the same
warnings that gave his predecessors in both parties pause.
At times, he has simply been willing to embrace more risk. In other
moments, he has questioned the validity of the warnings altogether, even
from experts within his own administration. And he has publicly taken
pride in doing so.
Trump’s willingness to buck conventional thinking has been a defining
feature of his political life. As he enters the final year of his first
term, aides and allies describe him as increasingly emboldened to act
on his instincts. He’s banished the coterie of advisers who viewed
themselves as “guardrails” against his impulse. Others, like former
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, have left because they disagreed with
Trump’s decision-making.
Dan Shapiro.: 'Iran has capabilities far beyond al-Qaeda or ISIS'
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/274041
Soleimani, head of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC), was eliminated Thursday night in a US drone strike near
the Baghdad International Airport in Iraq.
"Qasem Soleimani had the blood of many thousands on his hands:
Americans, Iraqis, Lebanese, Syrians, Israelis & many, many others.
Truly one of the most evil men on the planet. Seeing his smiling mug in
selfies with terrorists across the region was hard to take. Good
riddance," Shapiro tweeted.
"That he deserved this fate, a fate he authored for so many others,
is not in question. The ability to carry it out is also impressive, as
an intelligence and operational achievement. To take a decision like
this has major strategic consequences. Iran has capabilities far beyond
al-Qaeda or ISIS when their leaders were eliminated. And they will have
many opportunities to respond.
"The question is, will the US and our allies be ready? To state the
obvious, careful, strategic, fact-based planning is not a hallmark of
our current President. So there is plenty of risk in this moment."
Did the Killing of Qassim Suleimani Deter Iranian Attacks, or Encourage Them?
“He was a monster, no question,” said Vipin Narang, an M.I.T. political scientist who has studied efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear program. “But there’s a consequentialist argument as well.”
Using retribution as justification can be straightforward in criminal proceedings, where judges and juries can apply the law without considering strategic consequences. But that logic does not apply in foreign policy, analysts said.
“The underlying reason that we don’t go around killing all bad people is that we usually make a decision about which bad people it’s in our interest to kill at this time,” said Lindsay P. Cohn, a foreign policy scholar at the Naval War College, who spoke in a personal capacity. Relying on retribution alone as a basis for such action, she said, is “fundamentally unstrategic.”
If the killing of General Suleimani creates a precedent for assassinating senior government figures, he said, American officials and their allies could become targets as well. And that would be a source of broad global instability.
“We killed people inside their sovereign territory, without the permission of the government,” Dr. Cohn said, noting that the American airstrike also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iraqi militia leader aligned with Iran, and other Iraqis. “This is a massive violation of sovereignty.”
“We killed people inside their sovereign territory, without the permission of the government,” Dr. Cohn said, noting that the American airstrike also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iraqi militia leader aligned with Iran, and other Iraqis. “This is a massive violation of sovereignty.”
Iraq Updates: Parliament Endorses Ousting of U.S. Troops
Many in Iraq considered America’s killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani,
a top Iranian commander, in Baghdad as an assault on its sovereignty.
Assassination or defensive action? Soleimani killing ignites freighted debate
https://www.timesofisrael.com/assassination-or-defensive-action-soleimani-killing-ignites-freighted-debate/
After Friday’s targeted killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani,
newsrooms struggled with the question: Had the United States just
carried out an assassination? And should news stories about the killing
use that term?
The AP Stylebook, considered a news industry bible, defines
assassination as “the murder of a politically important or prominent
individual by surprise attack.”
Although the United States and Iran have long been adversaries and
engaged in a shadow war in the Middle East and elsewhere, the US has
never declared formal war on Iran. So the targeted killing of a high
Iranian state and military official by a surprise attack was “clearly an
assassination,” said Mary Ellen O’Connell, an expert in international
law and the laws of war at the University of Notre Dame School of Law.
The neoconservative fantasy at the center of the Soleimani killing
But Eric Brewer, a long-time intelligence official who
recently left Trump’s National Security Council after working on Iran,
doesn’t find that narrative compelling. “Soleimani’s death is not going
to end Iranian influence in Iraq,” he told me, “nor is it likely to lead
to some sort of regime change uprising in Iran.”
There are a few reasons for that.
First, Iranian influence is already well entrenched
inside Iraq’s military and political structures; removing Soleimani from
the equation doesn’t change that. Second, Iraqis and Iranians
have shown they are willing to push for better governance without US
military intervention spurring them to action. In fact, Iraqi protests
recently led some of the leadership there to resign, partly fueled by
the perception that Iran was really running Iraqi affairs of state. And
today there are already large-scale anti-US demonstrations sweeping Iran after the Soleimani killing.
Third, US-Iran history over the last few decades makes
everyday Iranians skeptical of American intentions in the country,
especially Washington’s involvement in the 1953 coup
of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh. (There was an
anti-government movement to remove President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from
power when Barack Obama was president, and he chose not to get involved
so it didn’t seem like the US was meddling.)
Finally, there’s the hypocrisy problem: The US has no
qualms about supporting other authoritarian regimes around the world,
including Iran’s chief rival Saudi Arabia.
Saturday, January 4, 2020
27 y.o. Female Refusenik in Israeli Jai
BS"D
6 Teves, 5780 °° Jan. 3, '20
Parshas Vayigash
27-year-old Female Refusenik Languishing in Israeli Military Jail
An Update on the Crisis of Female Military Conscription in Israel
By Binyomin Feinberg
1.
URGENT ALERT: Ora bas Aliza, a national-religious woman of Ashdod -
now 27 years old - is presently languishing in Israeli Military Jail
Four, according to late word we received this morning, right before
Shabbos in Israel.
2. Reportedly, after civil police recently stopped her, Ora was transferred to and incarcerated by Military Police - over a slight delay in submitting her Religiosity- certification ("Tatzhir Dat") -- an astounding TEN YEARS ago!
3. The "Tatzhir Dat" is the standard
"religiosity"-certification document required by the Army to exempt a
girl from military service on religious grounds. It used to be unheard
of for any religious girl to be arrested for simply being late in
sending in her documentation. But recently, numerous innocent religious
girls have been languishing in military prison, often under brutal
conditions, with the reason/ pretext that the Army didn't receive their
religiosity certification on time. In actuality, there are probably many
more such girls than we know of. Some of those may have ultimately
succumbed to pressure, and enlisted in the Army. Escalating the
conscription of religious girls is the apparent goal of this harsh
treatment of non-violent, religious girls.
4.
Historically, any girl who was even slightly Torah-observant generally
obtained an exemption from the military draft. However, in recent
years, that's changed dramatically. For example, in the Summer of 2013,
the Israeli government issued an official policy change, seeking to
increase enlistment specifically of religious girls. Since then, things
have been getting increasingly worse for religious girls, especially
over the past two years. In some cases, the brutality towards innocent
religious girls - simply seeking to remain faithful to their religion -
employed by the military police, prison personnel - and the legal system
itself - has been downright shocking. This was well illustrated in some
famous cases, such as Yuval bas Tamar, Orah and Moriah R. (bnos
Beruriah), Rinas bas Chedva, and Lidar Shira L. (bas Yaffa).
5.
In our Jewish Press Dispatch columns since February, and in our online
posts, we've been documenting specific, confirmed cases of girls
(mostly religious) either incarcerated or under threat thereof, for
their steadfast refusal to serve in the military. This is a systemic
problem, and, as such, will only be alleviated by proper public
exposure.
6. We've
also been identifying multiple cases of human rights abuses of
incarcerated girls, including denial of medical care (e.g. Yuval bas
Tamar (2018); Miriam N. (about a month ago in Military Prison Six)),
denial of religious rights, such as kosher food and modest clothing; and
denial of communication. This is all in addition to the pattern of
denial of their religious rights via systematically denying their
religious exemptions, in a panoply of underhanded, even illegal ways. In
this particular case, it isn't clear yet to us that Ora's rights to a
religious exemption are being (tentatively) denied, because of an
apparent news "brownout" on the part of some of those dealing with her
case. But what is clear is that she is being subjected to totally
unwarranted harassment, of a persecutory nature.
7.
The experience of young women in Israeli military prisons generally
ranges from extremely difficult to the horrific. One girl we reported on
recently, Shir, even attempted to take her own life in Military Prison
Four last month. (Suicide within the Army is a blight unto itself.)
8.
Moreover, in addition to all of the other suffering they endure in
jail, every hour a girl is in prison poses a substantial risk that she
could be pressured or terrorized into submitting to enlisting in the
Army. On that basis alone, we are obligated to employ all legitimate
means to obtain their immediate freedom. This is truly a cause of pidyon
shevuyim, and should be treated accordingly.
9.
What generally makes the most impact in gaining the release of these
girls is intelligently disseminating quality information. That type of
"pirsum" escalates pressure on the Israeli government to free those
girls. The Israeli government is more concerned about their public image
in America than about what their own citizens say. So it's important
for readers to thoughtfully consider how to intelligently disseminate
this information as widely and expeditiously as practical, particularly
via social media.
10. Another way to have a
real and lasting impact is to help organize a women's demonstration
against the Israeli military abuse of women and girls. What goes on in
the Israeli Army is the most widespread governmental assault against the
purity, morality, rights, and wellbeing of Jewish women and girls in
recent history, perhaps dating back to wartime Europe. The unrelenting
mistreatment of girls seeking to avoid conscription into the promiscuous
military environment is just part of that broader systemic abuse. Even a
relatively modest demonstration of ladies in front of an Israeli office
or forum would raise awareness immensely, and thereby help deter such
abuses, going forward. The signage is crucial. It should call attention
to the fact that no one has a right to treat Jewish or non-Jewish girls
as they're treated in and by the Israeli Army - which has actually
developed a term reflective of their true view of the role of girls and
women in the Army: "Miz'ron Tzahali."
11. On
this issue, women have more of an ability to help break through the wall
of silence than men do. Thus, their obligation reflects that tactical
advantage. All readers would be well-advised to see the very strong
letter written by HaGaon Rav Meshulum Dovid Soloveichick Shlit"a
addressing the need to raise international awareness about these burning
issues.
12. Realistic Goals: If we cannot
reasonable expect to end the conscription of women, we certainly can
contain it. And the recent escalation of Israeli military recruitment
assaults against girls seeking to secure their exemptions should compel
us to become far more vigilant in seeking creative ways to get our
message out.
13. For some timely insights, please also review our article on the upcoming fast-day of Asara BeTeves:
"Tenth of Teves: A Day of Reckoning"
https://daattorah.blogspot.
https://daattorah.blogspot.
~~~
14.
For an update of this week's coverage of the ongoing crisis of Israeli
military conscription of women and girls, see the weekly email
newsletter of the Coalition for Jewish Values (Parshas Vayigash), issued
yesterday (Thu., Jan 2), in the Israel section, in which they linked to
three related posts:
° IDF Drops Rosh Yeshiva For Opposing Female Combat Roles
° Protesting Anti-Religious Persecution in Israel today:
https://daattorah.blogspot.
° We Need to Ensure that No Girl Be Drafted into the Israeli Military:
° Protesting Anti-Religious Persecution in Israel today:
https://daattorah.blogspot.
° We Need to Ensure that No Girl Be Drafted into the Israeli Military:
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