Allan Lichtman: October surprise ‘huge myth,’ Harris will win

 https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4920904-allan-lichtman-kamala-harris-october-surprise-2024/?tbref=hp

 The “October surprise” is a “huge myth” in American politics, according to the historian who devised the “Keys to the White House” formula.

Allan Lichtman, a historian and American University professor, has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984 using a formula of 13 true-or-false questions.

Looking ahead to November, eight of the keys favor Vice President Harris, while three do not, according to Lichtman.

The final two keys — foreign policy success and failure — could go either way but won’t sway the final outcome, he predicted.