https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/biden-will-beat-trump-says-historian-who-predicted-every-race-since-1984.html
- Historian Allan Lichtman has announced his pick for 2020: Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
- Lichtman’s
prediction model looks at 13 different categories, dubbed the “Keys to
the White House,” that have more to do with the record of the incumbent
party occupying the White House than the nominees themselves.
- “The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” Lichtman said in an op-ed video for The New York Times.
It's an impressive track record but
ReplyDelete1) everyone eventually screws up
2) even as the Electoral College votes were piling up on Trump's side, everyone was still predicting a Hillary victory.
3) Given how chaotic things will be in the US on voting day and with the mail-in ballots and all, there is no calling this one.