Thursday, July 9, 2020
Professor doubles down on prediction model of Trump's chances in 2020
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls
Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November.
Mediaite reported
on Wednesday that Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down
on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the
past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the
past 108 years.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."
As
Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict was the
1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W.
Bush.
Norpoth's model examines the results of presidential primaries as the
strongest indicator as to the outcome in the general election, not the
polls that dominate the political discussion. According to Norpoth,
Biden is in a much weaker position than Trump because of his poor
showing in the first two primary races.
While the "Primary Model" hands Trump his reelection, national polls
suggest Biden will win handily in November. The Real Clear Politics
average shows the former VP besting the sitting president by 8.7 points.
In the latest Fox News poll, Biden has a 12 point lead over Trump.
New public transport restrictions come into effect
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/283264
As of Thursday morning, new significant restrictions on public
transport come into effect as part of government efforts to fight
coronavirus.
The main limitation affects bus drivers who may transport only up to
50% of the maximum amount of passengers able be seated in a given
vehicle. The windows must be open with the air conditioners operating.
Weekday public transport will end at 22:00 and will run until Shabbat
begins and on Saturday night will continue even after 22:00.
NY ultra-Orthodox are acting like they have herd immunity. Could they be right?
https://www.timesofisrael.com/ny-ultra-orthodox-are-acting-like-they-have-herd-immunity-could-they-be-right/
The front page of the June 26 issue of Der Yid, one of the most
widely circulated Yiddish newspapers among New York’s ultra-Orthodox
communities, made the point loud and clear.
“And so it was after the plague.”
That sentiment appears to be guiding life in Brooklyn’s
ultra-Orthodox communities, where nearly four months after the virus
first arrived, synagogues and camps are open, religious schools resumed
classes before closing for summer break and wedding halls are packed
again, sometimes in violation of city and state rules designed to slow
the spread of disease.
Continued gatherings of
ultra-Orthodox Jews drew criticism from New York City Mayor Bill de
Blasio and others in the city this spring who said the communities were
not doing their part to stop the spread of the virus. But inside the
communities, the overwhelming perception is that most people have had
the virus and may now be immune.
“We have paid a terrible price in order to achieve this statistic
that is more than double that of our neighbors in Flatbush, and
certainly much more than that of New York City, or for that matter any
other community in the country,” the Gedaliah Society wrote on May 20.
“This high rate of past infection community wide will, with the help of
[God], protect us from the virus reactivating and spreading again
locally, which would thereby put the vulnerable at high risk.”
And behind the veil of normalcy — and the
pain of loss — linger deep and unsettling questions about how safe the
community really is.
One concern is that older people and others
who are at higher risk may be continuing to isolate for fear of
infecting themselves now that the communities have relaxed their
restrictions.
Few of those people, who may have isolated themselves earlier and more fully than others, are likely to have antibodies.
“That’s the one thing that really scares
me,” Hayum, the nurse practitioner, said. “That a lot of the people who
were locked up for three months have no antibodies, which means if there
is a second wave, they’re going to be very vulnerable.”
Tulsa sees Covid-19 surge in the wake of Trump's June rally
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/08/us/tulsa-covid-trump-rally-contact-tracers-trnd/index.html
The city of Tulsa is experiencing a surge in coronavirus cases, a little over 2 weeks after President Donald Trump held a campaign rally in an indoor arena there.
Dr.
Bruce Dart, Executive Director of the Tulsa Health Department, said in a
press conference on Wednesday there are high numbers being reported
this week, with nearly 500 new cases in two days and trends are showing
that those numbers will increase.
There had been a 20% decline in new Covid-19 cases the week of June 28 through July 4.
The
Tulsa Health Department reported 266 new cases on Wednesday, bringing
the total number in the county to 4,571. There are 17,894 cases in
Oklahoma and 452 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University's tally
of cases in the United States.
When
asked if the cases in Tulsa are going up due to the rally on June 20,
Dart said that there were several large events a little over two weeks
ago.
"I guess we just connect the dots," Dart said.
Trump campaign communications director
Tim Murtaugh told CNN, "There were literally no health precautions to
speak of as thousands looted, rioted, and protested in the streets and
the media reported that it did not lead to a rise in coronavirus cases.
Meanwhile, the President's rally was 18 days ago, all attendees had
their temperature checked, everyone was provided a mask, and there was
plenty of hand sanitizer available for all. It's obvious that the
media's concern about large gatherings begins and ends with Trump
rallies."
Wednesday, July 8, 2020
Trump says he disagrees with CDC school reopening guidelines, calls them 'impractical'
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-he-disagrees-with-cdc-school-reopening-guidelines-calls-them-impractical
“I disagree with @CDCgov on their very tough & expensive guidelines for opening schools,” Trump tweeted Wednesday. “While they want them open, they are asking schools to do very impractical things.”
The president did not explicitly detail which CDC recommendations he
takes issue with, though CDC Director Robert Redfield has encouraged all
schools to “do what they need” to reopen.
Trump warns stocks will 'disintegrate' if he loses. But stocks are climbing as Biden pulls ahead
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/08/investing/biden-trump-stock-market-election/index.html
President
Donald Trump is warning a blue wave in November will crash into
Americans' investment portfolios. Wall Street, however, is hardly
cowering at the prospects of a Democratic sweep.
"If
you want your 401k's and stocks, which are getting closer to an all
time high (NASDAQ is already there), to disintegrate and disappear, vote
for the Radical Left Do Nothing Democrats and Corrupt Joe Biden," Trump
tweeted Monday.
The ominous warning stands in stark contrast with the view from Wall Street. Investors seem totally unfazed by the political troubles of Trump, whose surprise 2016 election win set off a boom in the stock market.
Vindman to retire from military. His lawyer blames White House 'campaign of bullying, intimidation and retaliation'
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/08/politics/vindman-retiring-alleged-white-house-retaliation/index.html
"The President of the United States attempted to force LTC Vindman to
choose: Between adhering to the law or pleasing a President. Between
honoring his oath or protecting his career. Between protecting his
promotion or the promotion of his fellow soldiers," Pressman said in a
statement to CNN.
It is "absurd and frightening" for the White House to be involved in promotions at this level, the source added.
Israel had coronavirus firmly in its grasp, only to see it slip away
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/08/middleeast/israel-coronavirus-second-wave-netanyahu-intl/index.html
For months, Israel appeared to be an international model of coronavirus success.
With
early travel restrictions and sweeping closures, the Startup Nation had
largely contained the spread of Covid-19, recording a mortality rate
that was far better than many countries in the Western world. As
coronavirus tore across the United States and Europe, Israel was
comfortably moving towards reopening.
Mary Trump's disturbingly credible assessment of her 'dangerous' Uncle Donald
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/08/opinions/mary-trump-book-dangerous-donald-dantonio/index.html
No one will ever fully explain
Donald Trump: the cruelty, the vanity, the insecurity converted to
massive overconfidence. However, in "Too Much and Never Enough: How My
Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man," his niece Mary L. Trump
comes closer than anyone to describing the making of a seemingly
heartless person who won his way to the White House.
On page after page of this book,
to be published next Tuesday, the author relies on her perspective as
an insider and her expertise as a psychologist to reveal the family
dynamic that produced a person capable of the kind of outrageous acts
Trump has committed. This is, after all, a man who used insult, racism,
and lies to gain and maintain power. A president whose leadership
contributed to lethal fiascos involving asylum-seeking children, hurricane victims and, now, a pandemic made far worse by his bungling. Through it, he has seemed immune to feelings of regret, grief and empathy.
Once a source of pride, Israel’s virus response now a cautionary tale for world
https://www.timesofisrael.com/once-a-source-of-pride-israels-covid-response-now-a-cautionary-tale-for-world/
After inspiring worldwide praise, Israel’s handling of the
coronavirus pandemic has now emerged globally as a blueprint for how not
to reopen the economy too fast as a second wave of infections, worse than the first, sweeps the nation.
While many countries had looked to Israel’s early closing of
borders and initial flattening of the curve as a guide, recent
international reports have focused negatively on the Jewish state,
asking what went wrong and how that can be avoided in other countries.
Churches Were Eager to Reopen. Now They Are a Major Source of Coronavirus Cases.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/us/coronavirus-churches-outbreaks.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Weeks after President Trump demanded
that America’s shuttered houses of worship be allowed to reopen, new
outbreaks of the coronavirus are surging through churches across the
country where services have resumed.
The
virus has infiltrated Sunday sermons, meetings of ministers and
Christian youth camps in Colorado and Missouri. It has struck churches
that reopened cautiously with face masks and social distancing in the
pews, as well as some that defied lockdowns and refused to heed new
limits on numbers of worshipers.
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