Sunday, January 5, 2020

On foreign policy, Trump flouts risks that gave others pause

https://www.timesofisrael.com/on-foreign-policy-trump-flouts-risks-that-gave-others-pause/

 US President Donald Trump is not the first American leader to have Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in his sights, but he was the first to pull the trigger.
It’s a pattern that has emerged throughout Trump’s presidency. On a range of national security matters, he has cast aside the same warnings that gave his predecessors in both parties pause.
At times, he has simply been willing to embrace more risk. In other moments, he has questioned the validity of the warnings altogether, even from experts within his own administration. And he has publicly taken pride in doing so.
 Trump’s willingness to buck conventional thinking has been a defining feature of his political life. As he enters the final year of his first term, aides and allies describe him as increasingly emboldened to act on his instincts. He’s banished the coterie of advisers who viewed themselves as “guardrails” against his impulse. Others, like former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, have left because they disagreed with Trump’s decision-making.

Dan Shapiro.: 'Iran has capabilities far beyond al-Qaeda or ISIS'

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/274041

 Soleimani, head of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was eliminated Thursday night in a US drone strike near the Baghdad International Airport in Iraq.
"Qasem Soleimani had the blood of many thousands on his hands: Americans, Iraqis, Lebanese, Syrians, Israelis & many, many others. Truly one of the most evil men on the planet. Seeing his smiling mug in selfies with terrorists across the region was hard to take. Good riddance," Shapiro tweeted.
"That he deserved this fate, a fate he authored for so many others, is not in question. The ability to carry it out is also impressive, as an intelligence and operational achievement. To take a decision like this has major strategic consequences. Iran has capabilities far beyond al-Qaeda or ISIS when their leaders were eliminated. And they will have many opportunities to respond.
"The question is, will the US and our allies be ready? To state the obvious, careful, strategic, fact-based planning is not a hallmark of our current President. So there is plenty of risk in this moment."
 

Did the Killing of Qassim Suleimani Deter Iranian Attacks, or Encourage Them?

“He was a monster, no question,” said Vipin Narang, an M.I.T. political scientist who has studied efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear program. “But there’s a consequentialist argument as well.”

Using retribution as justification can be straightforward in criminal proceedings, where judges and juries can apply the law without considering strategic consequences. But that logic does not apply in foreign policy, analysts said.

“The underlying reason that we don’t go around killing all bad people is that we usually make a decision about which bad people it’s in our interest to kill at this time,” said Lindsay P. Cohn, a foreign policy scholar at the Naval War College, who spoke in a personal capacity. Relying on retribution alone as a basis for such action, she said, is “fundamentally unstrategic.”


If the killing of General Suleimani creates a precedent for assassinating senior government figures, he said, American officials and their allies could become targets as well. And that would be a source of broad global instability. 
 “We killed people inside their sovereign territory, without the permission of the government,” Dr. Cohn said, noting that the American airstrike also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iraqi militia leader aligned with Iran, and other Iraqis. “This is a massive violation of sovereignty.”

Iraq Updates: Parliament Endorses Ousting of U.S. Troops



Many in Iraq considered America’s killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, a top Iranian commander, in Baghdad as an assault on its sovereignty.

Assassination or defensive action? Soleimani killing ignites freighted debate

https://www.timesofisrael.com/assassination-or-defensive-action-soleimani-killing-ignites-freighted-debate/

 After Friday’s targeted killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, newsrooms struggled with the question: Had the United States just carried out an assassination? And should news stories about the killing use that term?
The AP Stylebook, considered a news industry bible, defines assassination as “the murder of a politically important or prominent individual by surprise attack.”
Although the United States and Iran have long been adversaries and engaged in a shadow war in the Middle East and elsewhere, the US has never declared formal war on Iran. So the targeted killing of a high Iranian state and military official by a surprise attack was “clearly an assassination,” said Mary Ellen O’Connell, an expert in international law and the laws of war at the University of Notre Dame School of Law.
 

The neoconservative fantasy at the center of the Soleimani killing



But Eric Brewer, a long-time intelligence official who recently left Trump’s National Security Council after working on Iran, doesn’t find that narrative compelling. “Soleimani’s death is not going to end Iranian influence in Iraq,” he told me, “nor is it likely to lead to some sort of regime change uprising in Iran.”
There are a few reasons for that.
First, Iranian influence is already well entrenched inside Iraq’s military and political structures; removing Soleimani from the equation doesn’t change that. Second, Iraqis and Iranians have shown they are willing to push for better governance without US military intervention spurring them to action. In fact, Iraqi protests recently led some of the leadership there to resign, partly fueled by the perception that Iran was really running Iraqi affairs of state. And today there are already large-scale anti-US demonstrations sweeping Iran after the Soleimani killing.
Third, US-Iran history over the last few decades makes everyday Iranians skeptical of American intentions in the country, especially Washington’s involvement in the 1953 coup of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh. (There was an anti-government movement to remove President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from power when Barack Obama was president, and he chose not to get involved so it didn’t seem like the US was meddling.)
Finally, there’s the hypocrisy problem: The US has no qualms about supporting other authoritarian regimes around the world, including Iran’s chief rival Saudi Arabia.

Given many options, aides were reportedly surprised Trump ordered Soleimani hit

https://www.timesofisrael.com/given-multiple-options-aides-surprised-trump-ordered-soleimani-strike-report/


Most national security officials did not want to attack Soleimani in Iraq, given the presence of US troops there and the already tenuous situation on the ground. Some argued for the operation to occur when Soleimani was traveling in Lebanon or Syria. But when they learned Soleimani would be traveling to Baghdad on January 2, they decided targeting him at the airport was their best opportunity.
The White House traditionally notifies senior members of both parties in the Senate and House of Representatives ahead of major military action. But top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer “was not given advanced notice” of the strike, a senior Democratic aide told AFP.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the administration conducted the airstrike without consultation of Congress or an authorization for use of military force against Iran. The strike conducted against Soleimani “went forward with no notification or consultation with Congress,” House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Eliot Engel similarly said in a statement.

Saturday, January 4, 2020

American Allies React With Concern, Cautious Support Following U.S. Killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani


https://time.com/5758330/us-allies-respond-qasem-soleimani-assassination/


 But Netanyahu also reportedly instructed his ministers not to discuss Soleimani’s death publicly. That could be out of fear of retaliation; the Quds Force and Iran-backed militias in Syria are already engaged in a proxy war with Israel. In Lebanon, Iran’s proxy Hezbollah has more than 100,000 rockets capable of hitting the whole of Israel.

“This is great news for the Israelis,” says Patrikarakos. “Unless, of course, Hezbollah starts launching missiles into Israel.”

Still, barring full regime change, Netanyahu would prefer to see the U.S. coax Iran into giving up its nuclear weapons program and ending its proxy wars in the Middle East, as opposed to all-out war, according to Ofer Zalzberg, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, an NGO that monitors and works to prevent conflict globally. “Netanyahu fears this incident lacks a broader U.S. strategy and would either merely escalate dynamics without restraining Iran’s nuclear program and regional activities, or that it would even boomerang, notably with U.S. withdrawal from Iraq,” Zalzberg tells TIME.

Fox News host Geraldo trashes Trump’s Iran moves on air


Tucker Carlson Criticizes Donald Trump for Risking War by Killing Iran General: 'Who's Actually Benefiting From This?'

https://www.newsweek.com/tucker-carlson-iran-war-trump-soleimani-1480413

 Tucker Carlson has questioned President Donald Trump's decision to kill Iranian general Qassem Soleimani because of the fallout from the potential war that may result from it.
Speaking on Fox News, Carlson described how "it's no exaggeration" to suggest that by the time his show is next on the air the U.S. will be involved with a conflict with Iran while criticizing those who appear to be wishing this was the case.
"From Iran's perspective, we're already there. If Iranian forces killed the chairman of our joint chiefs of staff, for example, would you consider it an act of war?" Carlson added.
 

27 y.o. Female Refusenik in Israeli Jai

BS"D

6 Teves, 5780  °°  Jan. 3, '20

Parshas Vayigash


27-year-old Female Refusenik Languishing in Israeli Military Jail



An Update on the Crisis of Female Military Conscription in Israel

By Binyomin Feinberg



1.  URGENT ALERT: Ora bas Aliza, a national-religious woman of Ashdod - now 27 years old - is presently languishing in Israeli Military Jail Four, according to late word we received this morning, right before Shabbos in Israel.

2.  Reportedly, after civil police recently stopped her, Ora was transferred to and incarcerated by Military Police - over a slight delay in submitting her Religiosity- certification ("Tatzhir Dat") -- an astounding TEN YEARS ago!

3.  The "Tatzhir Dat" is the standard "religiosity"-certification document required by the Army to exempt a girl from military service on religious grounds. It used to be unheard of for any religious girl to be arrested for simply being late in sending in her documentation. But recently, numerous innocent religious girls have been languishing in military prison, often under brutal conditions, with the reason/ pretext that the Army didn't receive their religiosity certification on time. In actuality, there are probably many more such girls than we know of. Some of those may have ultimately succumbed to pressure, and enlisted in the Army. Escalating the conscription of religious girls is the apparent goal of this harsh treatment of non-violent, religious girls.

4.  Historically, any girl who was even slightly Torah-observant generally obtained an exemption from the military draft. However, in recent years, that's changed dramatically. For example, in the Summer of 2013, the Israeli government issued an official policy change, seeking to increase enlistment specifically of religious girls. Since then, things have been getting increasingly worse for religious girls, especially over the past two years. In some cases, the brutality towards innocent religious girls - simply seeking to remain faithful to their religion - employed by the military police, prison personnel - and the legal system itself - has been downright shocking. This was well illustrated in some famous cases, such as Yuval bas Tamar, Orah and Moriah R. (bnos Beruriah), Rinas bas Chedva, and Lidar Shira L. (bas Yaffa).

5.  In our Jewish Press Dispatch columns since February, and in our online posts, we've been documenting specific, confirmed cases of girls (mostly religious) either incarcerated or under threat thereof, for their steadfast refusal to serve in the military. This is a systemic problem, and, as such,  will only be alleviated by proper public exposure.

6.  We've also been identifying multiple cases of human rights abuses of incarcerated girls, including denial of medical care (e.g. Yuval bas Tamar (2018); Miriam N. (about a month ago in Military Prison Six)), denial of religious rights, such as kosher food and modest clothing; and denial of communication. This is all in addition to the pattern of denial of their religious rights via systematically denying their religious exemptions, in a panoply of underhanded, even illegal ways. In this particular case, it isn't clear yet to us that Ora's rights to a religious exemption are being (tentatively) denied, because of an apparent news "brownout" on the part of some of those dealing with her case. But what is clear is that she is being subjected to totally unwarranted harassment, of a persecutory nature.

7.  The experience of young women in Israeli military prisons generally ranges from extremely difficult to the horrific. One girl we reported on recently, Shir, even attempted to take her own life in Military Prison Four last month. (Suicide within the Army is a blight unto itself.)

8.  Moreover, in addition to all of the other suffering they endure in jail, every hour a girl is in prison poses a substantial risk that she could be pressured or terrorized into submitting to enlisting in the Army. On that basis alone, we are obligated to employ all legitimate means to obtain their immediate freedom. This is truly a cause of pidyon shevuyim, and should be treated accordingly.

9.  What generally makes the most impact in gaining the release of these girls is intelligently disseminating quality information. That type of "pirsum" escalates pressure on the Israeli government to free those girls. The Israeli government is more concerned about their public image in America than about what their own citizens say.  So it's important for readers to thoughtfully consider how to intelligently disseminate this information as widely and expeditiously as practical, particularly via social media.

10. Another way to have a real and lasting impact is to help organize a women's demonstration against the Israeli military abuse of women and girls. What goes on in the Israeli Army is the most widespread governmental assault against the purity, morality, rights, and wellbeing of Jewish women and girls in recent history, perhaps dating back to wartime Europe. The unrelenting mistreatment of girls seeking to avoid conscription into the promiscuous military environment is just part of that broader systemic abuse. Even a relatively modest demonstration of ladies in front of an Israeli office or forum would raise awareness immensely, and thereby help deter such abuses, going forward.  The signage is crucial. It should call attention to the fact that no one has a right to treat Jewish or non-Jewish girls as they're treated in and by the Israeli Army - which has actually developed a term reflective of their true view of the role of girls and women in the Army: "Miz'ron Tzahali." 

11.  On this issue, women have more of an ability to help break through the wall of silence than men do. Thus, their obligation reflects that tactical advantage. All readers would be well-advised to see the very strong letter written by HaGaon Rav Meshulum Dovid Soloveichick Shlit"a addressing the need to raise international awareness about these burning issues.

12.  Realistic Goals:  If we cannot reasonable expect to end the conscription of women, we certainly can contain it. And the recent escalation of Israeli military recruitment assaults against girls seeking to secure their exemptions should compel us to become far more vigilant in seeking creative ways to get our message out.

13.  For some timely insights, please also review our article on the upcoming fast-day of Asara BeTeves:



~~~

14.  For an update of this week's coverage of the ongoing crisis of Israeli military conscription of women and girls, see the weekly email newsletter of the Coalition for Jewish Values (Parshas Vayigash), issued yesterday (Thu., Jan 2), in the Israel section, in which they linked to three related posts:

° IDF Drops Rosh Yeshiva For Opposing Female Combat Roles

° Protesting Anti-Religious Persecution in Israel today:

https://daattorah.blogspot.com/2020/01/protesting-antireligious-persecution-by.html

°  We Need to Ensure that No Girl  Be Drafted into the Israeli Military:


Friday, January 3, 2020

Here's How 2020 Democrats Are Reacting to the U.S. Assassination of Iran's Qasem Soleimani

https://time.com/5758264/qasem-soleimani-2020-democrat-reaction/

 Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said Thursday that President Donald Trump has “tossed a stick of dynamite into a tinderbox” with the targeted killing of Iran’s top general in an airstrike at Baghdad’s international airport.
The former vice president joined other Democratic White House hopefuls in criticizing Trump’s order, saying it could leave the U.S. “on the brink of a major conflict across the Middle East.”

Israel low on flu vaccines as virulent strain hits


https://www.ynetnews.com/health_science/article/BJNdnmv1U


 At least 100 people hospitalized in serious condition with complications from virus so far this winter, compared to just 45 last year; just 150,000 vaccines remain, leaving some 7 million Israelis to potentially spend the rest of the winter unvaccinated

Israel shuts Hermon ski resort as Iran plots revenge for Soleimani killing


https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-closes-hermon-ski-resort-as-iran-vows-revenge-for-us-killing-soleimani/


 An Israeli ski resort near the Syrian border that was the site of a previous missile attack was closed to visitors on Friday, amid fears of Iran exacting revenge on Israel for the US killing of a powerful Iranian general.

The Israel Defense Forces said it had ordered the Mount Hermon Ski resort in the Golan Heights shuttered for the day “in light of a situational assessment.”

The move was made hours after a US airstrike on a pair of cars at Baghdad’s airport killed Qassem Soleimani, the powerful head of Iran’s elite Quds Force and a major player in placing Iranian troops and pro-Iran proxies in Syria. Other senior members of a pro-Iran militia in Iraq were also killed.