https://mishpacha.com/post-iran/
Option number two, a democratic Iran, is the most palatable but least plausible for two reasons.
Historically, more than half of all regime changes since World War II have simply replaced one autocracy with another, and fewer than 25% have resulted in democratic governments. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the numbers are even worse. Since the 2011 Arab Spring, regime changes have occurred in seven nations, most recently in Syria, but only Tunisia has experienced a brief period of democracy.
President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu have both stated that regime change is the overriding goal of the current military campaign. History and the odds are stacked against them, and the campaign must be approached with realistic expectations. Eliminating Iran’s military capabilities — and not leaving them to fight another day under a similar regime — is a more important and more achievable goal.
Kind of a disjointed analysis, without a conclusion.
ReplyDeleteThe Islamic regime has several oppressive bodies, designed to prevent a popular revolution. They need to be degraded and disbanded, but it is a complex military task and unlikely achievable by air.