https://time.com/7265290/is-the-us-heading-into-a-recession-under-trump-what-to-know/
The U.S. consumer market saw a sharp decline last month for the first time in over two years, which Jacquez says is starting “to indicate that the resilient consumer is no longer spending at the pace that they used to be.” Consumer inflation expectations also soared in February.
It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, says Jacquez. When people are feeling good about the economy, it pushes them to spend and stimulate buying beyond just the essentials, to make long-term plans, to renovate and buy a home. If people are fearful and unsure about things such as whether or not mortgage prices will rise, they will not spend as much. Thus, the expectations of a recession can potentially have a “spiraling effect.”
Trump’s tariffs—including proposed reciprocal tariffs worldwide and a more intense trade war against America’s three biggest trading partners in Mexico, Canada, and China—are also a pivotal factor. Businesses are uncertain, Jacquez says, about what the economy is going to look like after the fallout of these tariffs ripple down different industries and the stock market. This can be unsettling, as what businesses “crave most” is certainty.
The business cycle is bigger than any government. Recessions can be delayed but not avoided by government policy. That's why, in parliamentary democracies where there's flexibility around election dates, governments will call elections when they see a recession coming rather than wait to have a campaign during one.
ReplyDeleteCanada is about to discover Mark Carney is the man with the reverse Midas touch
DeleteThe ‘rock star’ former Governor of the Bank of England has left a trail of destruction behind his glossy jobs
He has global experience. He has proven leadership skills. And he has the connections and the clout needed to steer his country through a perilous moment in its history. As Mark Carney succeeds Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada, he has made much of his credentials as a “rock star” central banker and of his undoubtedly impressive collection of other grand-sounding jobs.
There is just one snag. As it turns out, it takes only a cursory glance at his record to work out that Carney’s reputation is completely overblown. In reality, he has been over-promoted all over again.
Carney is the epitome of a remote, globalised, technocratic elite. He is very good at self-promotion, at collecting trophy jobs, and of course negotiating fabulously generous salaries and expenses for himself along the way. He is just not very good at delivering.
DeleteCanada is facing a perilous moment in its history. For reasons best known to himself, President Trump has turned on his northern neighbour, imposing steep tariffs on the country that threaten to wreck its economy. Much like the UK, record levels of immigration mean that GDP per capita has now been falling for six consecutive quarters. Its economic and social model will have to adapt if it is to survive a bitter row with the United States. It will take vision, courage and determination to overcome those challenges, and to steer a new course for the country.
Instead, Canada is going to get a self-regarding technocrat who may have plenty of connections but has left behind a trail of wreckage in every major job he has ever held. Carney may get a short term boost in the polls as he takes office, and may even win the general election later this year. Sure, PM will look good at the CV. But Canada will pay a high price for feeding his ego.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/10/canada-is-about-to-discover-mark-carney-is-a-failure/
First, Carney's big "I'll take the credit" item is the 2008 financial crisis during which he was the governor of the Bank of Canada. However, the real leader during that time was Finance Minister Jim Flaherty who gave instructions and direction to Carney. For Carney to take credit without Flaherty around to correct him (because he's dead) is vile.
DeleteHowever, Carney is in an interesting position. Remember that the Conservative vote is basically 30%. During times when the Liberals are extremely unpopular, an additional 10% will migrate from the Liberals to the Conservatives and then they win the election. However, that 10% quickly forgives the Liberals and migrates back in the next election and the Liberals return to power.
In this case, the Conservatives were up at 45% because of hatred of the Liberals so the Liberals pulled a fast one. They dumped their unpopular leader and brought in a "Great White Hope". That's what was needed as we watch that 15% migrate back to the Liberals since this is now a new party so they don't have to be mad at it anymore.
The final problem is the Conservative leader. Like me, you either really like him or you really hate him. (Sort of like Trump, too) So we currently have polls that suggest that people would rather have a Liberal government they hate than Pierre Poilievre.
Is there some way to be notified when a new article is posted? Garnem Ironhead always seems to comment first
ReplyDelete