There’s a shift in tone in Washington that’s emerged in the past few weeks. In my conversations on Capitol Hill and K Street alike, it’s impossible to miss. Democrats seem more upbeat and Republicans more deflated as the outlook of the midterm elections grows more lopsided. It’s giving 2006 vibes—the comparison Republicans have been hoping to avoid at all costs.
The President’s party typically faces net losses in midterm elections, but 2026 may well be a breed apart. As I’ve been talking with the folks who worked on the 2006 races, they say this feels worse for Republicans; having covered that cycle from over in The Associated Press’ old bureau on K Street, I cannot argue. In that year, Democrats picked up 31 House seats and five seats in the Senate. By August of 2006, Democrats enjoyed a 13-point advantage in CNN’s polling. At this point in 2026, Republicans are quick to point out, Democrats still only have a six-point advantage in CNN polling.
Trump has warned if Democrats win any control of Congress, it will mean a mangled Washington stuck dealing with the I-Word once again. It’s a route Congress has tried twice before with Trump, and the outcome on a third outing is not likely to be different. He may be right but it isn’t scaring off voters
