As Donald Trump's campaign falters, his warnings that the presidential contest will be rigged have become a focus of his pitch to voters.
Historians say Trump's sustained effort to call the process into question has no close parallel in past elections. And some are increasingly worried that his claims — for which he's offered no real evidence — could leave many of his supporters unwilling to accept the election results, potentially triggering violence and dangerously undermining faith in American democracy.
Day after day — at rallies, in interviews and on Twitter — Trump and several top backers have hammered the message that a victory for Hillary Clinton would be illegitimate. Trump has frequently suggested that widespread voter fraud will swing the election, and he has urged his supporters to closely monitor the voting process.
In a tweet Monday, he declared that there's "large-scale voter fraud happening on and before election day." In fact, numerous studies have shown that in-person voter fraud is vanishingly rare.
In August, Trump told a Pennsylvania crowd that the "only way" he could lose the state is "if cheating goes on." Trump's vice presidential running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, echoed those claims Monday in Ohio, declaring: "Voter fraud cannot be tolerated by anyone in this nation."[...]
But as he has slipped in the polls, Trump has gone further, making his claims a central facet of his campaign — to the point where even some Republican leaders, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, have repudiated them. And he has broadened his case, charging that the contest is being rigged not just through fraud but also by the media, which he says favor his opponent.
He has also suggested that Clinton worked with the Democratic National Committee to steal her party's nomination from Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
Laura Belmonte, a history professor at Oklahoma State University, said that although there have been disputed elections and claims of illegal voting in the past, Trump's systematic effort to question the process in advance is new.
"I really can't think of another precedent where this rhetoric has been used so vigorously prior to the election," Belmonte said. "So the calls for poll watchers and the not-so-veiled threatening discourse — I really don't think have an analogue."
Belmonte added that most losers of close presidential elections have conceded defeat and called for the nation to unify, which has helped to maintain public faith in the system. [...]
Evidence is mounting that Trump's broad, sustained attack has already had an impact:
As Donald Trump's campaign falters, his warnings that the presidential contest will be rigged have become a focus of his pitch to voters.
Historians say Trump's sustained effort to call the process into question has no close parallel in past elections. And some are increasingly worried that his claims — for which he's offered no real evidence — could leave many of his supporters unwilling to accept the election results, potentially triggering violence and dangerously undermining faith in American democracy.
Day after day — at rallies, in interviews and on Twitter — Trump and several top backers have hammered the message that a victory for Hillary Clinton would be illegitimate. Trump has frequently suggested that widespread voter fraud will swing the election, and he has urged his supporters to closely monitor the voting process.
In a tweet Monday, he declared that there's "large-scale voter fraud happening on and before election day." In fact, numerous studies have shown that in-person voter fraud is vanishingly rare.
In August, Trump told a Pennsylvania crowd that the "only way" he could lose the state is "if cheating goes on." Trump's vice presidential running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, echoed those claims Monday in Ohio, declaring: "Voter fraud cannot be tolerated by anyone in this nation."
Trump is hardly the first prominent Republican to issue dire warnings about voter fraud. In 2008, Sen. John McCain of Arizona alleged in a presidential debate that the voter registration group ACORN was "on the verge of maybe perpetrating one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country, maybe destroying the fabric of democracy."
But as he has slipped in the polls, Trump has gone further, making his claims a central facet of his campaign — to the point where even some Republican leaders, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, have repudiated them. And he has broadened his case, charging that the contest is being rigged not just through fraud but also by the media, which he says favor his opponent.
He has also suggested that Clinton worked with the Democratic National Committee to steal her party's nomination from Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
Laura Belmonte, a history professor at Oklahoma State University, said that although there have been disputed elections and claims of illegal voting in the past, Trump's systematic effort to question the process in advance is new.
"I really can't think of another precedent where this rhetoric has been used so vigorously prior to the election," Belmonte said. "So the calls for poll watchers and the not-so-veiled threatening discourse — I really don't think have an analogue."
Belmonte added that most losers of close presidential elections have conceded defeat and called for the nation to unify, which has helped to maintain public faith in the system.[...]
Whether Trump would respond to defeat in the same way is very much an open question. He pledged at the first presidential debate that he'd "absolutely" support Clinton if she won. But he has since hedged, telling The New York Times later that week: "We're going to have to see. We're going to see what happens."
That has some election experts worrying that America's long tradition of peacefully transferring power could be at risk.
"One of the things we take for granted is that, even in tumultuous times when elections are hard fought, the losers concede the election and embrace the process, even if things did not go well," the election law scholar Rick Hasen, a professor of law and political science at the University of California-Irvine, wrote after Trump's "we're going to have to see" comments.
"Donald Trump threatens this peace," Hasen wrote.
Evidence is mounting that Trump's broad, sustained attack has already had an impact:
A Politico poll released Monday found 41 percent of voters — including 73 percent of Republicans — fear that the election could be stolen.
An Associated Press poll found that half of respondents who have a favorable opinion of Trump have little to no confidence that votes will be counted fairly.
And a Survey Monkey poll conducted with Nathaniel Persily of Stanford Law School earlier this month, found that 40 percent of respondents said they'd lost faith in American democracy, with Trump supporters saying so at significantly higher rates than Clinton backers.
Meanwhile, the rhetoric from Trump supporters is growing apocalyptic. Milwaukee County, Wis., Sheriff David Clarke, a prominent Trump surrogate on law and order issues, called in a recent tweet for "pitchforks and torches."[...]
Rubio, Toomey Dispute Trump 'Rigged' Election Claims in Debates
Republican Sens. Marco Rubio and Pat Toomey became the latest Republicans to speak out against Donald Trump's warnings of a rigged election Monday night.
In separate high-stakes debates, the two incumbent U.S. senators each refuted Trump's claim that the results of the 2016 election could be tainted, and both men called for confidence in next month's vote.
"Our elections may not always be completely perfect, but they are legitimate, they have integrity and everyone needs to respect the outcome," Toomey said during his debate with challenger Katie McGinty when asked about the Republican presidential nominee's allegations, which he's been repeating on the stump all week.
Toomey said that the success of the American "republic" depends on citizens' "confidence in the outcome of the elections" and said voters should respect the outcome, "because that's going to be necessary to pull us all together on Nov. 9."
Rubio, in his debate with Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, said the election is "absolutely" not being rigged and "I hope [Trump] stops saying that."
Rubio offered a more extensive rebuttal to Trump's claims. Visibly irritated, he noted that Florida's 67 counties all conduct their own elections. "I promise you there is not a 67-county conspiracy to rig this election," he said, adding that Florida Gov. Rick Scott is a Republican and appoints those who run the elections.
"Third, there's no evidence behind any of this and so this should not continue to be said," Rubio added.
Rubio also cited the "millions of people who came [to Florida] because they couldn't vote in the nation of their birth," a reference to the state's sizable Cuban population. "It would be a tragedy if they gave up their vote here as well."
Toomey and Rubio's respective Democratic opponents attacked the senators for not opposing Trump. Murphy called Trump "unhinged," and McGinty said his election skepticism is a "dangerous, reckless allegation."
Taking fire from all sides for his claim that American democracy is “rigged,” Donald Trump cited academic studies to justify his claims that the country is beset by widespread voter fraud Monday night in Wisconsin.
Rather than prove widespread fraud, the two studies cited by Trump document voter-record management shortfalls on the one hand and suggest that illegal voting by non-citizens is more common than generally understood on the other. While the studies highlight shortcomings in the electoral system, fact-checking site PolitiFact ruled Trump’s claim that the studies illustrate “large scale voter fraud” as “pants on fire” false, the organization's lowest rating, earlier Monday.
Speaking at a rally in Green Bay, Trump cited the conclusions from a Pew Research study that found “approximately 24 million — one of every eight — voter registrations in the United States are no longer valid or are significantly inaccurate” … “More than 1.8 million deceased individuals are listed as voters.” Also: “Approximately 2.75 million people have registrations in more than one state.” But rather than showing widespread voter fraud, the study’s authors concluded that the country’s, “inaccurate, costly and inefficient” voting system “needs an upgrade.”
Trump also cited a 2014 guest post on the Washington’s Post’s political science blog, the Monkey Cage, from the authors of a study that extrapolated from an online survey that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent voted in 2010, proportions high enough to potentially tip close races. While the study raises concerns about the extent of illegal noncitizen voting, it extrapolated from a "modest" sample size and did not document any widespread fraud. Its authors suggested that it is likely that noncitizens who cast ballots are generally unaware that they do not have the right to vote. The authors pointed out several possible methodological shortcomings in the study, and other academics have lodged their own critiques.
But on Monday, Trump spun the studies as proof the presidency will be stolen, charging, “They even want to try and rig the election at the polling booths.”[...]
