https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/05/11/iran-war-is-trap-trump-built-himself/
President Donald Trump is caught in an Iran war trap of his own making. He has for weeks been all-too-visibly eager for a deal allowing him to declare “victory” for … something. Conversely, he seems to deeply fear making a Barack Obama-like nuclear deal, and the inevitable (and justifiable) criticism. Good answers seem scarce, reinforcing his frustration. That was evident on Sunday when, posting online, he denounced as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” Iran’s response to a U.S. framework to end the war. He must feel like George H.W. Bush, who once described himself as “one lonely little guy down here” at the White House.
Much of the trap’s construction depended on what Trump didn’t do. Before launching U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran, he never explained to Americans why military force was justified to help achieve regime change, eliminate Tehran’s nuclear weapons and terrorist threats, or eviscerate its military capabilities. He apparently did not brief members of Congress. He seemingly did not consult U.S. allies, neither in NATO nor the Persian Gulf, nor America’s Indo-Pacific friends, who depend heavily on Middle Eastern oil. George H.W. Bush did all these things before launching Operation Desert Storm in 1991.
But Trump did stop, and he now seems lost, in effect hoping Iran’s Revolutionary Guard gives him a diplomatic exit, which it has so far declined to do. Instead, the regime’s remnants seek time to emerge from Iran’s rubble, reconsolidate their rule and rebuild their military capabilities, including their nuclear-weapons and ballistic-missile programs and their terrorist networks and proxies. They see correctly that Trump’s domestic political troubles vex him far more than the distant threat of a reconstituted Iranian militarized theocracy. Thus, even if Tehran appears to accept Trump’s proposed ceasefire as a basis for future negotiations, the regime will take its time doing anything substantial, including opening the Strait of Hormuz.
Most important, military action is necessary to restore deterrence. Tehran must learn with certainty it would suffer severe consequences for later trying to close the strait. Allowing merely a diplomatic end to this crisis, particularly under the “gradual” process apparently contemplated by Trump’s latest offer, would set a ruinous precedent. Emboldened as it now is, Iran’s regime would probably conclude it would face only diplomatic, not military, consequences for again closing the strait. Entirely predictably, Tehran could then open and close it like flipping a switch, raising or lowering the pressure as it saw fit.