haaretz Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu claimed 31 seats, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 15, Shas 11, Habayit Hayehudi 11, United Torah Judaism 7, Hatnuah 6, Meretz 6, United Arab List-Ta’al 5, Balad 3, and Kadima likely to win 2 seats.
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I wonder how much the efforts of the Satmar and his comrades who forbid voting contributed to these results.
ReplyDeleteIf Netantyahu cannot go anywhere, only able to count on 31 Likud, 11 Shas, 11 Bayit YeHudi and 7 UTJ, breaking even withe exactly 60 Knesset votes, then (altho it's unlikely but in politics you never know) dumps Shas, Bayit Yehudi and UTJ, and rather turns to the secular parties such as Lapid's centrist-left Yesh Atid with it's 19 votes and even to Labor with it's 15 votes, that gives him 65, put the blame on the Eidah HaChareidis and the recent visit of the Satmar Rebbe, R Zalman Leib Teitelbaum, who instructed their people not to vote. They could have added at least 2, maybe even up to 4 more Knesset seats to UTJ, that increased by one and now is projected to have 7(that shows the desire of the Charedi community to have an active voice in Israeli politics, they can't wait for Satmar to send them "gifts" from America.)
ReplyDeleteGedolim have always understood that in the Israeli system of proportional representation where small parties can hold the balance of power between the bigger parties, Agudas Yisroel-Degel HaTorah (now combined as Yahadut HaTorah [UTJ]) could swing things and benefit for the Charedi community, but with this election it is more precarious and they do not have the leverage they could have had had EVERY eligible Charedi voter done what the those who got the 7 Knesset members in have now done. If there is one thing the great Gedolei Yisroel of past generations got right, such as the Chazon Ish, the Steipler, Rav Elyashiv, Rav Aron Kotler, the Gerrer, Viznitzer and Belzer Rebbes and many, many notable others, it is the importance of voting in Israeli elections in order to protect and benefit the interests of Charedi Jewry.
United Torah will have to address its increasing working Bnei Torah and Anglo Torah community who are feeling disenchanted and disconneted to the party's agenda. If Gafni and Porush keep announcing, "We are the party of avrechim, and that is who we will and can assist".... Where does that leave the Working or Vocational trained Ben Torah? Also a large segment of CHaredim live on the other side of the Green Line, their security concerns have made them align with Right-Wing, Nationalist parties. If Shas and UTJ are still willing to join a left-wing coalition, it throws these Charedim to look for another party.
DeleteRemember you older folks, when there was a party called "Poali Agudah", there were Bnei Torah who were the workers of Agudah. Either address these needs or remain forever at 6 to 7 mandates.
A secular coalition is very unlikely. I think the coalition will be include Likud-IsraelBeitunu and all religious parties, plus Yesh Atid (69 seats). Beit HaYehudi will get the religious ministry, and reassert dati leumi power in the rabbanut, putting Tzohar rabbis in charge or at least in major positions of power. UTJ will oppose this but will end up joining the coalition anyway with the promise that their funding won't be cut and charedim won't be drafted too quickly or insensitively. Alternatively, UTJ will be in opposition and Labor will join the right-wing government (like they did last time). This would enable the government to move forward unhindered with the "equal sharing of the burden" measures aimed at integrating charedim into the workforce and national service.
ReplyDeleteYoni, what you say makes sense but there are hundreds of "working Bnei Torah and Anglo Torah" people in Modiin Illit and besides a handful of voters everyone voted for Gimmel or Shas. It seems the "working Bnei Torah and Anglo Torah" are happy to stay with Gimmel.
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