Sunday, January 5, 2020

Did the Killing of Qassim Suleimani Deter Iranian Attacks, or Encourage Them?

“He was a monster, no question,” said Vipin Narang, an M.I.T. political scientist who has studied efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear program. “But there’s a consequentialist argument as well.”

Using retribution as justification can be straightforward in criminal proceedings, where judges and juries can apply the law without considering strategic consequences. But that logic does not apply in foreign policy, analysts said.

“The underlying reason that we don’t go around killing all bad people is that we usually make a decision about which bad people it’s in our interest to kill at this time,” said Lindsay P. Cohn, a foreign policy scholar at the Naval War College, who spoke in a personal capacity. Relying on retribution alone as a basis for such action, she said, is “fundamentally unstrategic.”


If the killing of General Suleimani creates a precedent for assassinating senior government figures, he said, American officials and their allies could become targets as well. And that would be a source of broad global instability. 
 “We killed people inside their sovereign territory, without the permission of the government,” Dr. Cohn said, noting that the American airstrike also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iraqi militia leader aligned with Iran, and other Iraqis. “This is a massive violation of sovereignty.”

3 comments:

  1. It is not a binary choice of deterrence vs encouragement. When Hamas bombs Israel for example, they are enraged by Israeli counter attacks and targeted killings. Iran, may well be a paper tiger - there is popular discontent and the young generation wants change. they could change the regime, it will take a war of some kind to do it, or weakening of the IRGC.
    Sorry to see your crocodile tears at the man who has killed many Israelis, Americans British, and also Iranian civilians protesting.

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  2. you have a major reading problem

    I never have said I was sorry he got killed i.e crocodile tears - just said it was a really dumb decision

    you clearly have difficulty understanding a rather elementary point! - which is common to Trump and his fans

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  3. you seem to set your moral compass against everything that Trump does. I do not agree with everything he does, many of the things he has said are dumb. In this case, I think he was right.




    The not do anything was alsoa dumb decision. Think of Zechariah ben Avkulos, also sitting on his hands and doing nothin, like Obama.

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