https://www.ynetnews.com/opinions-analysis/article/hybjoy7lzg
U.S. President Donald Trump wants a deal with Iran. More than he wants a deal, he wants a victory photo. Trump is not only negotiating over the nuclear issue, Hormuz and sanctions. He is fighting a war over the narrative. Against the backdrop of growing criticism of the details of the emerging agreement, Trump needs to prove that the deal he brings, if he brings one, will be far better than Obama’s nuclear deal. For him, that is the heart of the problem.
That is why the issue of enriched material has become the central test, though here too there is uncertainty. Opening the Strait of Hormuz could provide Trump with an important achievement, but not a sufficient one. To claim he won the argument with Obama, he needs something tangible: the removal of enriched material from Iran, its destruction, or at least a credible inspection mechanism that would allow him to say the threat was not postponed but addressed. But it is unclear whether the gap between destruction, removal and dilution translates for him into a strategic diplomatic difference, not just a technical one. Diluting the material, an option the Iranians may be willing to discuss, is not the same as removing it from the equation.
But that is precisely where the danger of deterioration lies. The more Trump wants a deal, the more he may find himself on a path toward escalation. If he accepts a weak Iranian formula, he will be accused of bringing an agreement worse than Obama’s. If he rejects it, he will have to prove that American pressure still works. And if Iran continues to apply pressure on the ground, especially in Hormuz, he may be pushed into another military action to preserve his credibility. The U.S. strike overnight against Iranian vessels that Central Command said were trying to lay mines illustrates that the negotiations are not taking place alongside the military reality but inside it.
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