US spy agencies examining how Iran would react to Trump declaring victory

 https://www.jpost.com/international/article-894510

US intelligence is analyzing the question to understand the implications of Trump potentially pulling back from a conflict that could contribute to Republican losses in the midterm elections.

United States intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond if US President Donald Trump were to declare a unilateral victory in the two-month-old war that has become a political liability for the White House, two US officials and a person familiar with the matter said.

The intelligence community is analyzing the question along with others at the request of senior administration officials. The goal is to understand the implications of Trump potentially pulling back from a conflict that some officials and advisers worry could contribute to deep Republican losses at the midterm elections later this year, according to the sources.

While no decision has been made - and Trump could easily ramp back up military operations - a quick de-escalation could ease political pressure on the president, even as it could leave behind an emboldened Iran that could eventually rebuild its nuclear and missile programs and threaten US allies in the region.

In the days following the initial bombing campaign in February, intelligence agencies assessed that if Trump were to declare victory and the US drew down its forces in the region, Iran would likely view it as a win, one of the sources said.