This is the scariest question about Putin — and Trump

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/16/russia-putin-threat-europe-nato-raises-questions-about-trump/

Russian President Vladimir Putin, always paranoid about enemies, may be feeling cornered this spring. His army is at a standstill in Ukraine, despite suffering enormous casualties. He appears powerless to help Iran, one of his few allies. And his best friend in Europe, Hungary’s Viktor Orban, just got dumped.

Here’s Rumer’s stark warning: “Having invaded Ukraine under the false pretext of needing to secure its western flank, Russia is poised to emerge from the war less secure, more resentful, and more threatening to Europe than before the war. Its threat perceptions will cast a long shadow over Europe.”

Putin is a risk taker, as his invasion of Ukraine showed. What if he decides that his window of opportunity to challenge NATO and impose a new order is closing? In the most ominous passage of his report, Rumer writes: “If Putin is truly intent on imposing his vision of European security on the continent, he may decide that time is not on his side, as Europe is racing to rearm, and launch an attack against a Baltic neighbor to demonstrate that NATO’s Article 5 is essentially a dead letter.”

What would Trump do if Putin struck a European country? For me, that’s the scariest question. Trump spends so much time bad-mouthing NATO that Europeans already doubt the credibility of American security guarantees. His latest anti-NATO tirades have focused on its refusal to aid the United States and Israel in the Iran war. Before Rutte visited Washington this month, Trump called NATO a “paper tiger” that “Putin’s not afraid of.”