The Facts on Bail Reform and Crime Rates in New York State

 https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/facts-bail-reform-and-crime-rates-new-york-state

But the best available information suggests that bail reform is not the primary driver of these increases in crime. One recent analysis by the Times Union of Albany suggested that relatively few people released under the new law went on to be rearrested for serious offenses. The Times Union reviewed state data on pretrial releases between July 2020 and June 2021, identifying nearly 100,000 cases where someone was released pretrial in a decision “related to the state’s changed bail laws.” Just 2 percent of those 100,000 cases led to a rearrest for a violent felony; of these, 429 cases led to a rearrest for a violent felony involving a firearm. Roughly one-fifth of all cases resulted in a rearrest for “any offense,” regardless of severity, such as a misdemeanor or nonviolent felony.

That means any attempt to link bail reform to rising crime should be evaluated skeptically. Indeed, some early arguments about the effects of bail reform have been directly disproven. In 2020, the New York City Police Department claimed that bail reform and recent jail releases had led to an increase in shootings. But according to a New York Post analysis, the NYPD’s own statistics proved otherwise. Between January and late June 2020, according to NYPD data reviewed by the Post, “just one person released under the statewide bail reform laws” had been charged with a shooting.