https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business/
Five months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there remains a startling lack of understanding by many Western policymakers and commentators of the economic dimensions of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion and what it has meant for Russia’s economic positioning both domestically and globally.
Far from being ineffective or disappointing, as many have argued, international sanctions and voluntary business retreats have exerted a devastating effect over Russia’s economy. The deteriorating economy has served as a powerful if underappreciated complement to the deteriorating political landscape facing Putin.
Two things
ReplyDelete1) Germany and other countries continue to delay the implosion by buying Russian gas as a result of the idiotic climate change policies. Canada itself is now a criminal in these by breaking sanctions to send gas turbines to Russia so the Germans can keep their lights on
2) Russia-Ukraine is the practice. China-Taiwan is the main show. Everything happening in Europe is just for the benefit of China before it decides to invade Taiwan. Pay more attention.
But what choice does Germany have, seeing as they have no alternattive source of natrual gas? They started a coal fired power station, reported just today. If the west lifted sanctions on oil and gas, - assumign the Ruskies play ball, there will be a glut of oil energy on the market, and prices will drop, perhaps from $100/ barrel, to 25-30. So Russia will be "punished" because at that level , they are hardly covering their costs.
ReplyDeleteChina are watching, and their economy is already under pressure - do they want to join Russia, and see their economy collapse? that is the deterrent.
Ukraine is a testing field for new weaponry - which is important for Western armies, but also for exports. Now everyone is interested in these new weapons systems that destroy tanks, airplanes, S300 anti missiles sytems, etc. Same with drones - Turkey is enjoying the new markets it is finding. the Rich Arab states will be plowing their oil money back into Nato weapons systems. it doesn't matter if Biden doesn't like MBS, the saudis can buy from Britain, Sweden, france etc. maybe even Israel.
Germany is proving what a joke it is to "go green". Leading up to this they shut down their coal and nuclear plants, coal because "we're green!" and nuclear because Fukushima freaked them out. Now they're opening coal plants and their emissions are higher than before they went "green".
ReplyDeleteChina is watching and has probably learned two valuable lessons
1) When you invade, get it over with within 48 hours, a week at most. Finish your enemy off before they even realize they've been attacked. Worked for Germany in WW2, worked for Israel in 1967. So when the invasion of Taiwan comes, they'll go for a lighting strike of overwhelming proportions so that by the time the nearest US navy ship learns of it, it'll be over.
2) Before your enemies can sanction you, you sanction them. Expect China's supplies of important computer components, car components and battery components to shrink in the months leading up to the war, causing supply chain and economic issues in the dependent West.
The big loser here is Canada. we have the wheat supplies to replace what Ukraine can't export but our government is pushing a 30% cut in fertilizer because fertilizer isn't "green" which will drop our food supplies. We have enough natural gas to export to keep all of Germany warm and toasty but instead our government is treating our industry like it's a national enemy. This could be Canada's big moment to actual save the world and instead it's the slow kid in the back of the class who's just not sure what's going on anymore.
Ironically, green is not yet "sustainable"
ReplyDeleteAnd never will be. Sometimes the wind doesn't blow. Sometimes the sun sets. And not everyone can live near Niagara Falls. The ultimate way forward is hybrid - promotion of renewables while maintaining the cleanest forms of fossil fuels to maintain the supply and developing technology to capture carbon. But the Greens are fanatics - no fossil fuels!
ReplyDeleteNuclear, gas , but it is also subject to a shortages - only a few months ago Biden was trying to shut down the export pipeline from Israel!
ReplyDeleteCO2 can theoretically be converted to more valuable products, and there are already trials of such technology.
Biden already shut down the export pipeline from Canada and then went to Saudi Arabia to beg for more oil. There people are idiots.
ReplyDelete