On one hand, it's a state by state issue. When Arizona, Florida and Texas were ablaze with the virus, you heard about it every day. Check the stats now - the waves are over and they've moved into a holding part, same much lower number of cases every day. California and the midwest continue to climb. All this focus on the short term is inevitable as it's all we got but I could make a bold prediction and point out that Trump's emphasis on vaccine development, which the media ignores or downplays, and on procuring rapid testing, which the media again ignores or credits others with, will make all the difference in a year. At that point expect that much of America will be vaccinated and that routine rapid testing will be all over the place. Meanwhile, sanctimonious countries like Canada and Western Europe who love mocking the Americans will still be hunkering down and waiting for their supplies, which they ordered later, to arrive. And who will get the credit? Biden, of course!
No, that's exactly how it'll play out. Operation Warp Speed is close to releasing the first vaccines. Rapid testing development is being deployed in the US already. All under Trump's watch. If you're going to condemn his mistakes, honest demands you credit his successes.
All data shows covid mortality has gone DOWN significantly since the beginning of the pandemic. Part of that is because other states never implemented the death-inducing nursing home policy of Cuomo and 3 other governors which you claim in delusion didn't happen. But mortality is also down across all age groups. Outbreaks have been entirely regional since the beginning. First the east coast and Washington state & California, then Arizona, Texas, Florida and the South in the summer, and now the Midwest. The media likes to "tally up" every new outbreak as if the previous ones didn't stop, but they did. They are pushing a misery orgy where optimism is forbidden, and every possible fact is interpreted negatively. New cases means we are all dying - But that isn't true. But the reality is, this virus isn't going away without a vaccine, but the severe, ugly, deadly outbreak that NY had just isn't happening in other places, and it won't no matter how badly the media wants to see that. Of course, after November 4th, their tune will completely change, and especially after January 1st if Biden wins. Then suddenly it will be a miraculous victory story of Biden's efforts (which are nothing different than before) destroying the virus.
Do you even read what I write? I say if you're going to condemn his mistakes - large death toll -225 247 deaths as of this morning, not 400 000 - then you have to acknowledge his success - when they're the first country to mass-vaccinate.
Once again you dismiss what I say with a flippant remark but in the process only demonstrate your own ignorance and denial of reality, or perhaps your blind partisanship. You should show more respect to someone who consistently brings data and sources to back up his statements here, after you flippantly dismiss them without basis. Mask wearing by the population, in my opinion, likely plays a big role in the decline in covid mortality rates in the US. That remains to be proven. But also helpful is the trend of hospitals more often using proven life-saving treatments like dexamethasone and no longer using or focusing on the distraction of HCQ which helps no hospitalized patients. Source: https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us Data: US Covid Case fatality rate (CFR) by month: April 7.4% May 5.5% June 3.1% July 1.3% Aug 2.1% Sep 1.9% Oct 1.3% CFR has clearly declined. Here are the covid hospitalization rates by age over time, which so far have been lower with each spike in cases. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/10232020/images/lab-confirmed-hospitalizations-weekly.gif
Here is an analysis of German data from September showing declining CFR across age groups, following examination of UK data that suggested the same thing (a UK analysis which wasn't controlled for the lower-age predominance of new cases at that time) https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/declining-covid-19-case-fatality-rates-across-all-ages-analysis-of-german-data/
Here is data showing death per million people in the US with France as a comparison. See how the midsummer surge in cases did not produce the same surge in mortality as the Mar-May timeframe did in the East coast outbreak? That is true for France in their recent surge in cases as well. The same is likely to be true for the current US Midwest outbreak. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-11..2020-10-25&country=USA~FRA®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_deaths_per_million&pickerSort=desc
Here is the same death data (7 day rolling average) but with absolute number of deaths on the y axis. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-7-day?tab=chart&time=2020-03-11..latest&country=~USA
Since you'll now probably deny that cases increased at any point in the past 5 months, here is the graph showing the surge in cases in June and happening now in a different region of the country (the midwest) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-11..2020-10-25&country=~USA®ion=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_deaths_per_million&pickerSort=desc Cases were obviously much higher in April than displayed here but were not captured by insufficient testing. The point remains. The death data hasn't corresponded to the case numbers in the same way it used to. It's still wise to avoid being infected, but the doom and gloom forecasts of misery just aren't backed up by data.
but the Johns Hopkins data says otherwise - mortality has been increasing even if percentage has been decreasing. How is it comforting? And there are widespread increases around the world and in US.
So you accept Trump's false claim that we have turned the corner and spikes have disappeared?!
"mortality has been increasing even if percentage has been decreasing." Huh??? You're talking about CUMULATIVE MORTALITY? As in the total number of covid deaths? It is mathematically impossible for that to go down. That's a running tally. Completely irrelevant topic. Mortality - What percentage of people die who catch the virus - HAS gone down. That is the relevant question I was speaking about and it is encouraging, not discouraging, when that happens. We want fewer people to die. You have to stop making everything about Trump. It is a fact of life that mortality is lower than it was at the beginning of the pandemic. Why does that make you mad? The media coronavirus misery orgy is dishonest and damaging to people. It is not unreasonable to believe the US is turning the corner. The summer surge in Texas, Arizona, Florida burnt out quickly. Maybe this Midwest surge does likewise. Then what? It's ok to have optimism.
Mortality ,or raw death numbers, is unfortunately rising in UK , having gone down to negligble numbers during July and Aug. it is not yet clear whether it is rising on the same curve as the first wave - although numbers have double over the past week or 2.
What these figures mean is not clear yet. Are dexamethasone and other new teatments reducing deaths which would be closer to the first wave deaths? That seems to be the case. Are Covid deaths merely substituting would-be flu deaths, which seem to be going down? How much as the weather (autumn, less sunlight) got to do with it, and easing of lockdowns?
"Turning the corner" can mean many things. Churchill z'l famously made the nafka mina of "the end of the beginning" and "the beginning of the end".
The appearance of effective drugs - especially dexamethasone and other steroids, could be said to be the end of the beginning. The battle for safe and effective vaccines continues , but if these are proven and approved, could spell the beginning of the end.
nope! look at the Johns Hopkins site the number of deaths per time is increasing. That is different than the mortality rate data you presented regarding percent of people dying from Covid.
A 1000 people a day dying can not be described as turning the corner or spike disappearing!
"Deaths per time" is a meaningless figure. It depends on Cases per time. We already know that cases surge up and down over the course of time. And SOME percentage of cases will result in death. But if that percentage changes, it means a lot! The mortality rate, which is relevant, that I'm talking about, refers to case fatality rate, the percentage of people who catch covid who die from it. THAT HAS GONE DOWN since the beginning of the pandemic, and that is a very good thing. If fewer people have bad outcomes from the virus, we can live with it more. If hypothetically NO ONE had bad outcomes, the cases would be completely irrelevant. That's obviously not the case at this point, but I say that to explain why I'm looking at CFR. You should admit that you erred in declaring my comments untrue. They are still true yesterday, today, and tomorrow. And they are rightfully optimistic.
Just btw, society hiding inside for months at a time is not a sustainable "solution" to this problem. And it never will be.
You forgot, Joe Biden said at the debate that another 200,000 people will die of covid by January 1st (in less than 3 months from now). That's a rather odd and miserable claim considering 200,000 died in the first 8 months of the pandemic and mortality rate is lower than it was then. But remember, we must press absolute doomsday scenarios at all time and we must believe the worst is about to happen, because covid is really bad and Trump is at fault!
Don't forget Trump said over 2 million were projected to die. But since he is a great cheerleader only 220k died. So we always need to have the worst case projections unless you are a Trump supporter and just know it is a media or Democratic hoax or the result of too much testing and simply doesn't want to talk about it since it is history due primarily to Trump's "travel bans" besides no one will be talking about it in Nov 4.
death is not the only bad outcome. So rate is important - but so are the other measures - which are all not decreasing Only Trump and his supporters are optimistic - after all Trump thinks he is immortal as the result of covid - so it can't be so bad
death rate per diagnosis is also misleading , as it is not an absolute figure. There may have been many infected but not diagnosed at the early stages, whereas now more people are getting tested.
You just don't stop politicizing ever, do you? If death rate goes down, ALL bad outcomes naturally go down as well. (And I included hospitalization data to reflect that point!) Death is just the worst of the bad outcomes from the infection. Its decrease is a surrogate for the decrease in others. But keep pushing that misery story
You didn#t respone to my earlier question - how soon will teh pandemic abate after Biden comes to office? Shall we say January 4th or whatever - what is he going to do differently, that isn't being done already? Vaccines are near approval. they are not Trump or Biden vaccines, they are biotech and pharma vaccines.
Wow! You need to scream louder. you seem to think your argument is super profound. It is nothing new. Repeating it doesnt make it more true but it does seem to make you happy.
Not likely. Needs effective vaccine and willing population. The virus won't disappear on its own.
ReplyDeleteOn one hand, it's a state by state issue. When Arizona, Florida and Texas were ablaze with the virus, you heard about it every day. Check the stats now - the waves are over and they've moved into a holding part, same much lower number of cases every day. California and the midwest continue to climb.
ReplyDeleteAll this focus on the short term is inevitable as it's all we got but I could make a bold prediction and point out that Trump's emphasis on vaccine development, which the media ignores or downplays, and on procuring rapid testing, which the media again ignores or credits others with, will make all the difference in a year. At that point expect that much of America will be vaccinated and that routine rapid testing will be all over the place. Meanwhile, sanctimonious countries like Canada and Western Europe who love mocking the Americans will still be hunkering down and waiting for their supplies, which they ordered later, to arrive.
And who will get the credit? Biden, of course!
nope!
ReplyDeleteNo, that's exactly how it'll play out. Operation Warp Speed is close to releasing the first vaccines. Rapid testing development is being deployed in the US already. All under Trump's watch. If you're going to condemn his mistakes, honest demands you credit his successes.
ReplyDeleteAll data shows covid mortality has gone DOWN significantly since the beginning of the pandemic. Part of that is because other states never implemented the death-inducing nursing home policy of Cuomo and 3 other governors which you claim in delusion didn't happen.
ReplyDeleteBut mortality is also down across all age groups.
Outbreaks have been entirely regional since the beginning. First the east coast and Washington state & California, then Arizona, Texas, Florida and the South in the summer, and now the Midwest. The media likes to "tally up" every new outbreak as if the previous ones didn't stop, but they did. They are pushing a misery orgy where optimism is forbidden, and every possible fact is interpreted negatively. New cases means we are all dying - But that isn't true. But the reality is, this virus isn't going away without a vaccine, but the severe, ugly, deadly outbreak that NY had just isn't happening in other places, and it won't no matter how badly the media wants to see that.
Of course, after November 4th, their tune will completely change, and especially after January 1st if Biden wins. Then suddenly it will be a miraculous victory story of Biden's efforts (which are nothing different than before) destroying the virus.
400 000 death is success?! The vaccine that only Trump knows about? or maybe his long promised health plan?
ReplyDeletenope! no such data.
ReplyDeleteDo you even read what I write?
ReplyDeleteI say if you're going to condemn his mistakes - large death toll -225 247 deaths as of this morning, not 400 000 - then you have to acknowledge his success - when they're the first country to mass-vaccinate.
Once again you dismiss what I say with a flippant remark but in the process only demonstrate your own ignorance and denial of reality, or perhaps your blind partisanship.
ReplyDeleteYou should show more respect to someone who consistently brings data and sources to back up his statements here, after you flippantly dismiss them without basis. Mask wearing by the population, in my opinion, likely plays a big role in the decline in covid mortality rates in the US. That remains to be proven. But also helpful is the trend of hospitals more often using proven life-saving treatments like dexamethasone and no longer using or focusing on the distraction of HCQ which helps no hospitalized patients.
Source: https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us
Data: US Covid Case fatality rate (CFR) by month:
April 7.4% May 5.5% June 3.1% July 1.3% Aug 2.1% Sep 1.9% Oct 1.3%
CFR has clearly declined.
Here are the covid hospitalization rates by age over time, which so far have been lower with each spike in cases.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/10232020/images/lab-confirmed-hospitalizations-weekly.gif
Here is an analysis of German data from September showing declining CFR across age groups, following examination of UK data that suggested the same thing (a UK analysis which wasn't controlled for the lower-age predominance of new cases at that time) https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/declining-covid-19-case-fatality-rates-across-all-ages-analysis-of-german-data/
Here is data showing death per million people in the US with France as a comparison. See how the midsummer surge in cases did not produce the same surge in mortality as the Mar-May timeframe did in the East coast outbreak? That is true for France in their recent surge in cases as well. The same is likely to be true for the current US Midwest outbreak. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-11..2020-10-25&country=USA~FRA®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_deaths_per_million&pickerSort=desc
Here is the same death data (7 day rolling average) but with absolute number of deaths on the y axis. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-7-day?tab=chart&time=2020-03-11..latest&country=~USA
Since you'll now probably deny that cases increased at any point in the past 5 months, here is the graph showing the surge in cases in June and happening now in a different region of the country (the midwest)
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-11..2020-10-25&country=~USA®ion=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_deaths_per_million&pickerSort=desc
Cases were obviously much higher in April than displayed here but were not captured by insufficient testing. The point remains. The death data hasn't corresponded to the case numbers in the same way it used to.
It's still wise to avoid being infected, but the doom and gloom forecasts of misery just aren't backed up by data.
but the Johns Hopkins data says otherwise - mortality has been increasing even if percentage has been decreasing. How is it comforting? And there are widespread increases around the world and in US.
ReplyDeleteSo you accept Trump's false claim that we have turned the corner and spikes have disappeared?!
"mortality has been increasing even if percentage has been decreasing."
ReplyDeleteHuh??? You're talking about CUMULATIVE MORTALITY? As in the total number of covid deaths? It is mathematically impossible for that to go down. That's a running tally. Completely irrelevant topic.
Mortality - What percentage of people die who catch the virus - HAS gone down. That is the relevant question I was speaking about and it is encouraging, not discouraging, when that happens. We want fewer people to die. You have to stop making everything about Trump. It is a fact of life that mortality is lower than it was at the beginning of the pandemic. Why does that make you mad? The media coronavirus misery orgy is dishonest and damaging to people.
It is not unreasonable to believe the US is turning the corner. The summer surge in Texas, Arizona, Florida burnt out quickly. Maybe this Midwest surge does likewise. Then what? It's ok to have optimism.
Mortality ,or raw death numbers, is unfortunately rising in UK , having gone down to negligble numbers during July and Aug. it is not yet clear whether it is rising on the same curve as the first wave - although numbers have double over the past week or 2.
ReplyDeleteWhat these figures mean is not clear yet. Are dexamethasone and other new teatments reducing deaths which would be closer to the first wave deaths? That seems to be the case. Are Covid deaths merely substituting would-be flu deaths, which seem to be going down? How much as the weather (autumn, less sunlight) got to do with it, and easing of lockdowns?
"Turning the corner" can mean many things. Churchill z'l famously made the nafka mina of "the end of the beginning" and "the beginning of the end".
The appearance of effective drugs - especially dexamethasone and other steroids, could be said to be the end of the beginning. The battle for safe and effective vaccines continues , but if these are proven and approved, could spell the beginning of the end.
nope!
ReplyDeletelook at the Johns Hopkins site the number of deaths per time is increasing. That is different than the mortality rate data you presented regarding percent of people dying from Covid.
A 1000 people a day dying can not be described as turning the corner or spike disappearing!
"Deaths per time" is a meaningless figure. It depends on Cases per time. We already know that cases surge up and down over the course of time. And SOME percentage of cases will result in death. But if that percentage changes, it means a lot!
ReplyDeleteThe mortality rate, which is relevant, that I'm talking about, refers to case fatality rate, the percentage of people who catch covid who die from it. THAT HAS GONE DOWN since the beginning of the pandemic, and that is a very good thing. If fewer people have bad outcomes from the virus, we can live with it more. If hypothetically NO ONE had bad outcomes, the cases would be completely irrelevant. That's obviously not the case at this point, but I say that to explain why I'm looking at CFR. You should admit that you erred in declaring my comments untrue. They are still true yesterday, today, and tomorrow. And they are rightfully optimistic.
Just btw, society hiding inside for months at a time is not a sustainable "solution" to this problem. And it never will be.
You forgot, Joe Biden said at the debate that another 200,000 people will die of covid by January 1st (in less than 3 months from now). That's a rather odd and miserable claim considering 200,000 died in the first 8 months of the pandemic and mortality rate is lower than it was then. But remember, we must press absolute doomsday scenarios at all time and we must believe the worst is about to happen, because covid is really bad and Trump is at fault!
ReplyDeleteDon't forget Trump said over 2 million were projected to die. But since he is a great cheerleader only 220k died. So we always need to have the worst case projections unless you are a Trump supporter and just know it is a media or Democratic hoax or the result of too much testing and simply doesn't want to talk about it since it is history due primarily to Trump's "travel bans" besides no one will be talking about it in Nov 4.
ReplyDeletedeath is not the only bad outcome. So rate is important - but so are the other measures - which are all not decreasing Only Trump and his supporters are optimistic - after all Trump thinks he is immortal as the result of covid - so it can't be so bad
ReplyDeletedeath rate per diagnosis is also misleading , as it is not an absolute figure. There may have been many infected but not diagnosed at the early stages, whereas now more people are getting tested.
ReplyDeleteYou just don't stop politicizing ever, do you? If death rate goes down, ALL bad outcomes naturally go down as well. (And I included hospitalization data to reflect that point!) Death is just the worst of the bad outcomes from the infection. Its decrease is a surrogate for the decrease in others. But keep pushing that misery story
ReplyDeleteYou didn#t respone to my earlier question - how soon will teh pandemic abate after Biden comes to office? Shall we say January 4th or whatever - what is he going to do differently, that isn't being done already? Vaccines are near approval. they are not Trump or Biden vaccines, they are biotech and pharma vaccines.
ReplyDeleteI am not a prophet as you seem to be.
ReplyDeleteWow! You need to scream louder. you seem to think your argument is super profound. It is nothing new. Repeating it doesnt make it more true but it does seem to make you happy.
ReplyDeleteThen until we have evidence that any US leader could do better, this discussion should not be linked to trump or elections.
ReplyDeleteProfound? Not at all. Demolishing your demented arguments? Absolutely.
ReplyDeletedoes not demolish my arguments!
ReplyDelete