https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/05/politics/polls-july-analysis/index.html
Now, the past isn't necessarily
prologue. There is time for volatility. The polls will probably bounce
around during the convention period. (Part of the reason the first 10
days of July are a good snapshot is that it is usually after the primary
season but before the conventions.) Trump could close the gap and could
very well win.
But make no
mistake: An incumbent trailing by double-digits in early July with an
opponent over 50% is a heavy underdog for reelection.
Trump is behind by double digits.
ReplyDeleteThis is misleading though. The U.S. system is built on the electoral college. We know this. That's how he won last time despite being down in the populsr vote.
But let's say all people who are going to vote have been polled and that Trump is down 10%.
That really means he only needs to change the minds of 5% of the voters. But not everyone has made up their mind. And some who don't usually vote might get motivated and vote.
Between the two campaigns, a nillion dollars or so of money will be spent in the next few months on advertising. Biden still has to navigate the Democrat convention. His last press conference raised major questions over his style of running his campaign.
Biden ABSOLUTELY must shine at the convention. A lackluster performance is not something he'll be able to recover from. He needs a powerful speech that holds out hope for unifying the country.
And what if the Far Left tries to hijack the convention?
So these polls are interesting. But tell us very little.
Hah. The same press that assured us, right up until 9:30 pm on election night that Hillary would be the runaway winner is now assuring up that Biden will win.
ReplyDelete