https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/upshot/coronavirus-models.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
In the last few weeks, we’ve all become a little more familiar with
epidemiological models. These calculations, which make estimates about
how many people are likely to get sick, need a hospital bed or die from
coronavirus, are guiding public policy — and our expectations about what
the future holds.
But if you look at the models, they don’t really agree.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUvWaxuurzQ
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXargSbVp7E&list=LL&index=12&t=0s
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY
ReplyDeletethis guy is talking sense, he knows what he is saying. Pay attention to what he says about anecdotal evidence.
ReplyDeleteHowever, he is making an error or fallacious statement by pointing to fatality rate being lower than currently estimated. If everyone in USA is infected with a 1% fatality rate, that is 3.3 million deaths due to the virus.
Flu does not kill that many Americans each year, even if it is a bad one.
The death or fatality rate is a statistical measure, but a lower rate does no mean that a low absolute number of deaths will occur.
Sweden has a population of 10 Million, while Israel has 9 million, or if you include the West bank, 11 million.
ReplyDeleteSweden is 20 x the size of Israel (land), so many people live in small towns. Yet, Sweden has just under 2000 deaths, Israel just under 200.
Now, I know you like the blonde shicsas, we all do! But that doesn't mean we have to treif like the Swedes, nor do we have to follow their reckless behaviour.
"Sweden is going really well!" - Baghdad Berel
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