Wednesday, August 3, 2022

Are Economic Forecasters Worth Listening To?

 https://hbr.org/1984/09/are-economic-forecasters-worth-listening-to

We argue that economic forecasts deserve to be taken seriously, not necessarily because they promise to be accurate but because they are so much more useful than having no forecasts at all. We do not say that managers should listen to all forecasts or to all forecasters; that is the sure road to total confusion. Rather, we say that forecasts properly used and understood will lead to better business decisions than forecasts ignored or naively used.

Tuesday, August 2, 2022

Psychotherapist convicted of sexually abusing patients sentenced to 39 months

 https://www.timesofisrael.com/psychotherapist-convicted-of-sexually-abusing-patients-sentenced-to-39-months/

Jerusalem-based psychotherapist Yuval Carmi was sentenced Tuesday to three years and three months behind bars by the Jerusalem Magistrate’s Court after pleading guilty to charges of sexual assault against two of his patients.

He was ordered to pay NIS 100,000 ($30,000) in compensation to Kim Ariel Arad, the first plaintiff to come forward, and NIS 30,000 to a second victim whose name has not been made public.

“I’m full of regret for what I did,” Carmi, 67, said after his sentencing, according to a Channel 12 report. “I’m sorry I caused harm and hope such cases don’t happen again,” he added.

Fox News is incoherently mad about Manchin striking a deal

 https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/fox-news-incoherently-mad-about-manchin-striking-deal

Fox News hates this bill. The network’s propagandists and their GOP guests were clearly reeling from the surprise announcement that Manchin had reached an agreement after repeatedly putting negotiations on ice. But even on short notice, they came up with a slew of reasons — at times contradictory — to oppose the nascent legislation.

Top economists say Democrats' health care and climate package will put 'downward pressure on inflation'

 https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/02/politics/economists-democrats-package-downward-pressure-inflation/index.html

Congressional Democrats' climate and health care package is getting a boost from a group of top economists, who wrote in a new letter that the so-called Inflation Reduction Act will lower prices for American consumers amid high inflation.
"This historic legislation makes crucial investments in energy, health care, and in shoring up the nation's tax system. These investments will fight inflation and lower costs for American families while setting the stage for strong, stable, and broadly-shared long-term economic growth," 126 economists said in a letter sent to congressional leadership Tuesday, which was first obtained by CNN.

Here's how the Senate reconciliation bill would actually affect inflation

 https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/01/politics/inflation-reduction-act-senate-reconciliation-bill/index.html

The package counters inflation in three ways, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers told CNN's John Berman. It reduces budget deficits, and therefore, the level of demand in the economy. Also, it cuts prices on prescription drugs, while increasing supply by stimulating energy production and subsidizing the transition to renewable energy.
"Less demand, more supply and direct, better bargaining for lower prices -- those are the things that are involved in reducing inflation," said Summers, who last year had warned that rising inflation was not transitory. "This bill is fighting inflation, and it's got a whole set of collateral benefits, as well. It's fair to call it the Inflation Reduction Act."
Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said a key driver of inflation is high energy costs, which the bill seeks to address through environmental investments.
"There is a simmering debate on the causes of inflation, but whatever side one takes in that debate, this bill is a step forward," said Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University.

Marjorie Taylor Greene Rips Biden's 'Victory Lap' in al-Zawahiri Killing

 https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-rips-bidens-victory-lap-al-zawahiri-killing-1729845

Greene quickly took to Twitter to lash out at Biden for attempting to "act tough on TV" by speaking on the death, arguing that "most Americans" were either unaware of the leader or had "forgotten" about Al-Qaeda and al-Zawahiri, despite the group being behind 9/11—the largest-ever terrorist attack in U.S. history. She suggested that Biden should have instead focused on issues including the botched U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, a so-called "proxy war with Russia" and high inflation rates.

The Senate passed a bill to help sick veterans. Then 25 Republicans reversed course

 https://www.npr.org/2022/07/29/1114417097/veterans-burn-pit-bill-republican-senators

The bill — like many issues related to veterans' health — had amassed deep bipartisan support, and easily passed the Senate by an 84-14 vote in June. But a technical error required another vote, and this time, more than two dozen Republicans switched sides. The final tally was 55-42 (with three senators abstaining), falling short of the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster.

Senate Republicans burned a bill that would have helped veterans — here’s why

https://www.vox.com/2022/7/30/23284976/senate-republicans-pact-act-veterans 

The question remains why more than two dozen Republicans, many veterans themselves, voted for it last month but flipped this week. According to some Democrats, the bill was blocked for political benefit.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) alternatively argues that Republicans took out their anger over a separate bill on the PACT Act. Democrats are attempting to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes a historic $369 billion to be spent over the next 10 years to address climate change, health care, inflation, and taxes.

“The less charitable explanation is this,” Murphy said, about why so many Republicans flipped, “Republicans are mad that Democrats are on the verge of passing climate change legislation and have decided to take out their anger on vulnerable veterans. Because that’s the other thing that’s changed in the last three weeks. Republicans thought that Democrats weren’t going to be able to pass a bill asking corporations to pay a little bit more, tackling climate change. Yesterday, news emerged that there is an agreement that makes it likely that a climate change bill is going to proceed on the Senate floor, and magically 30 votes flip.”

New method to improve visual perception of people with autism developed in TAU

 https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/mind-and-spirit/article-713636

A new Tel Aviv University (TAU) study suggests a new learning method for people with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) that could speed up their learning processes and even significantly improve capabilities in terms of visual perception.

Improving the perceptual capabilities of people with ASD is a difficult challenge, requiring long and tedious training. The new study used a new learning method based on “memory flashes” lasting just a few seconds. Using it could significantly improve the achievements of people with autism who also manage to generalize learning to other situations.

Monday, August 1, 2022

Actually, the Russian Economy Is Imploding

 https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business/

Five months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there remains a startling lack of understanding by many Western policymakers and commentators of the economic dimensions of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion and what it has meant for Russia’s economic positioning both domestically and globally.

Far from being ineffective or disappointing, as many have argued, international sanctions and voluntary business retreats have exerted a devastating effect over Russia’s economy. The deteriorating economy has served as a powerful if underappreciated complement to the deteriorating political landscape facing Putin.

Sanctions 'catastrophically crippling' Russian economy, study finds

https://www.euronews.com/2022/07/28/sanctions-catastrophically-crippling-russian-economy-study-finds 

Russia's economy has been "catastrophically crippled" by western sanctions and the mass exodus of international companies, according to a Yale University study.

The research -- which the authors say is the "first comprehensive" analysis of the Russian economy -- found that since the start of the Ukraine war, Russia has taken a devastating hit across multiple metrics.

"Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades worth of foreign investment," write researchers at the Yale School of Management, adding that this situation has been worsened by an "unprecedented" capital and population flight.

Study shows: Western sanctions take a heavy toll on Russia's economy | DW News

Women Rabbis?

 https://hakirah.org/vol%2011%20schachter.pdf

In the printed notes of Rav Soloveitchik’s shiurim on Shulchan Aruch, Yoreh De’ah, 1 prepared for publication by Rabbi Eliyakim Koenigsberg, in the very first essay, the Rav is quoted as having said that a woman may not serve as a rabbi. The Tanna’im understood the pasuk in Chumash as implying that women may not be appointed to the position of King.2 The Talmud points out3 that the repetition of the verb in the pasuk “som tasim alecha melech”4 implies that this principle applies not only to the position of King, but to all positions of serarah and authority. Hence it would follow5 that a woman may not be appointed president of a synagogue or as rabbi, since these are also positions of serarah. 6 The reason the Rav brought up this topic in the beginning of Yoreh De’ah is because the Rama7 quotes the practice of not appointing a woman as the town shochet. The Beis Yosef quotes the Kol Bo who seems to say8 that although a woman may shecht privately, she may not be appointed as the town shochet. If indeed this was the intention of the Kol Bo it could be understood that this appointment would constitute a form of serarah. Indeed in Europe before the war, the town shochet was, in a certain sense, the assistant rabbi. The shochet knew sections of Shulchan Aruch, Yoreh De’ah, and often when the rabbi would be on vacation, the shochet would paskin the she’eilos.

Sunday, July 31, 2022

10K Christians Rip Greene's Christian Nationalism: 'Betrayal of Our Faith'

 https://www.newsweek.com/10k-christians-rip-greenes-christian-nationalism-betrayal-our-faith-1729377

"Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) just essentially declared that America has no place for Jews, Muslims, or the LGBTQ community when she explicitly stated 'we should be Christian nationalists,'" the introduction to the petition said. "Now she's even selling 'Proud Christian Nationalist' t-shirts with an ad that says 'Stand Against the Godless Left' and shows her fists violently raised. (So much for loving your neighbor or following the Prince of Peace.)"