https://www.ynetnews.com/opinions-analysis/article/hyxykdhxfx
Analysis: Netanyahu was right to approve strikes on Beirut’s Dahieh, Ron Ben-Yishai argues, but by publicly threatening Hezbollah before acting, he allowed Trump to intervene and deprived Israel of one of its most effective pressure tools in Lebanon
Israel, in its current position, has little choice but to accept U.S. President Donald Trump’s dictate on Lebanon, wait to see whether his negotiations with Iran end in agreement or collapse, and only then recalculate its course on all fronts.
Israel was pushed into this position for several reasons. The first is that Trump is determined to reach understandings with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran has conditioned any agreement on a ceasefire in the Lebanese arena as well. The second is Israel’s diplomatic, military and logistical dependence on the United States, a dependence Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cultivated, alongside the international isolation in which Israel now finds itself.
Netanyahu was therefore right to accept the recommendation of the IDF chief of staff and senior defense officials and approve a strike on the Dahieh. But instead of threatening on social media and announcing the plan in advance, he should have first allowed the air force to carry out what the IDF calls a “demonstration of capability”: bombing two or three important buildings to show Hezbollah, the Lebanese government and the Shiite community what awaits them.
Such a move would not have prevented Trump from becoming furious, shouting at Netanyahu, humiliating him and leaking the confrontation to the international media in order to appease the Iranians and keep negotiations with them alive, as he did yesterday. But at least there would have been a chance that Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons would lower the flames in Lebanon on their own initiative, to prevent the Israeli Air Force from continuing to topple buildings in the Dahieh.
I don't think it would've made a difference. The Iranians clearly see that Trump is desperate for a deal and have decided that making him stab Israel in the back is part of that deal.
ReplyDeleteOf course, I can't have been the only one to notice that all the fighting in Lebanon right now is post-the previous ceasefire which both sides ignored and Trump didn't go ballistic then. Odds are fighting will continue but a couple of previously considered targets will be left alone.