https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/03/09/us-iran-russia-china-cost/
Oil disruption benefits Russia, as does less U.S. aid for Ukraine. And Iran distracts from China.
Trump is right that Iran has an evil regime and a 47-year record of hostility toward the United States. But it was hard to argue, even before the current bombing, that the Islamic Republic constituted a major threat to the U.S. (as opposed to Israel). Iran’s nuclear program may not have been “totally obliterated” by American air strikes in June, as Trump claimed, but it was definitely set back. There was no “imminent” threat from Iran to justify the war Trump launched on Feb. 28 out of the blue — and the cost of waging it (financed with deficit spending at a time when the national debt is already close to $39 trillion) is likely to hamper U.S. efforts to compete with much more significant adversaries, notably Iran’s allies Russia and China.
Russia is already benefitting from the Iran war. The rise in oil prices (over $100 a barrel on Sunday from $73 a barrel on the eve of war) and Trump’s decision to relax sanctions on India for buying Russian oil will help bankroll the Russian war machine. The U.S. is also rapidly burning through limited stockpiles of missiles, especially air-defense interceptors, that are badly needed in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said more Patriot missiles were expended in just three days of fighting with Iran than have been used by Ukraine since 2022. Imagine how much Ukrainian energy infrastructure — and how many Ukrainian civilians — might have survived the winter if Trump had sent more Patriots to Ukraine rather than to what one journalist dubbed a “war of whim” with Iran.
It’s too soon to tell who will win the war between the United States and Iran. But, at this point, my money would be on Russia and China.
First no. Russia is losing a major ally because when this is over, Iran's oil will be controlled by the US.
ReplyDeleteSecondly, um, who's buying all this oil they're selling? Oh right, the same Europeans who complain that the US never did enough to help Ukraine are bankrolling Russia. Forgot to mention that.
Actually, China stands to be the loser, if the iranian regime is deposed. China is benefitting from cheap oil from iran, which helps artificially boost its economy. If the Shah or a democracy take back Iran, there will eb stability in the region, and a steady supply of oil and gas, which will also offset the russian bear hug. Sure, Russia always will benefit as it has massive oil and gas supplies, but the trick is to have a friendly , pro western supplier in the middle east.
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